Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 18th, 2026

• Drier air will filter into Northeast and North-Central Florida today where chances of rain will remain near zero and relative humidities will approach critically low values (35-45%).
• Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire danger is expected this afternoon as these low RH overlap with breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph.
• Moisture will linger south of the I-4 corridor and across the northern Panhandle where the sea breezes will help to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain). The highest chance of rain (50-75%) exists along the Southwest Florida coast.
• Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
• Rainfall amounts will remain generally below 1” in most locations, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-4” should they see repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
• High temperatures will climb into the 90s throughout much of the state, with breezy winds gusting upwards of 25 mph along the I-95 corridor keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler.
• Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100-degrees across Southwest Florida.
• Tonight, any lingering showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset. A few coastal showers may push onshore throughout the overnight hours along the East Coast (15-25% chance of rain).
• Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
• Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle by daybreak Tuesday.
• A moderate to high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
• According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 63 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,660 acres.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report