Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 16, 2026

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 05/16/2026 10:20 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:

 

  • Area of high pressure will remain anchored across the Southeast U.S. today, shifting slightly east into the western Atlantic allowing for moisture to gradually increase within south and southeasterly flow.
  • A mostly dry day is expected for much of the state, however isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes through the spine of the Peninsula this afternoon (15-40% chance of rain).
  • A few of these storms could become locally strong and capable of producing lightning and locally heavy downpours.
  • Fire weather conditions are expected to remain lower today due to relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds.
    • However, ongoing drought and breezy easterly wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph along the East Coast of Florida will allow for locally sensitive to elevated conditions to develop throughout portions of the Peninsula this afternoon.
    • Any thunderstorms could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
  • High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to middle 90s throughout the state.
  • Tonight, any showers or thunderstorms throughout the Peninsula will linger into the evening before dissipating after dark (15-35% chance of rain).
  • Otherwise, mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail.
  • Lows will only fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s statewide.
  • Areas of patchy fog may develop throughout portions of the Big Bend and Northeast Florida by daybreak Sunday.
  • A high risk for rip currents is expected for East Coast beaches today with a moderate risk for Panhandle beaches.
  • According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 50 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,687 acres.
 

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report