Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 11th, 2026.

• Areas of patchy dense fog have developed throughout Northeast Florida this morning but will slowly lift and dissipate as the sun rises.
• Plenty of moisture will pool across the eastern Peninsula today where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked for a few locally strong to severe thunderstorms (45-75% chance of rain).
• The primary hazards are gusty winds (40-60 mph), frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
• The Gulf sea breeze will also push northward across the Panhandle today, helping to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance of rain).
• A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the western Panhandle for isolated instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
• Rainfall totals throughout the state are expected to remain generally below 1”, however any areas that see repeated rounds of slow-moving storms could receive upwards of 2-4” of rain.
• The wildfire danger today will be low across the state. However, lightning strikes from any thunderstorms can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
• High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s throughout the state. Feels-like temperatures will soar into the lower 100s across portions of Central and South Florida.
• Tonight, scattered showers and storms will likely continue across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida as a frontal system passes through (40-50% chance of rain).
• There remains uncertainty in how much of this activity remains onshore versus offshore. Should the heavier rain remain onshore, areas south of I-10 could see upwards of 1-3" of rain overnight and before daybreak Tuesday.
• A few storms will also linger across Southeast Florida before pushing offshore after midnight (40-50% chance of rain).
• Low temperatures will only fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s in the Southeast metro and Keys.
• A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
• According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 61 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 22,613 acres.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report