Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, February 28, 2026
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 02/28/2026 10:13 AM EST
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning and will be slow to lift and dissipate by mid-morning.
- A sunny and dry day is expected across much of North Florida as a slow-moving frontal boundary remains draped through Central Florida.
- A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon throughout the Peninsula along this front (35-60% chance of rain).
- Some of this activity could be locally strong to severe and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked for East-Central and Southeast Florida this afternoon.
- A few thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty winds (40-60 mph), small hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.
- Instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out in urban and low-lying areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- Rainfall totals will remain below 1" for most locations, though locally higher totals upwards of 3" cannot be ruled out.
- Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds this afternoon throughout the state, though sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will persist given the ongoing drought.
- Winds will remain generally light this afternoon; However, gusty/erratic winds and lightning accompanied with thunderstorms could pose a threat for additional wildfire ignition/spread.
- High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, middle 70s to lower 80s throughout Central Florida, and lower to middle 80s in South Florida.
- Portions of Northeast Florida will remain cooler today with onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to push offshore by this evening across Central and South Florida, though some activity may linger before midnight (25-50% chance of rain).
- Another night of fog and low clouds is expected throughout portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend, as well as locally throughout interior South Florida.
- Some of this fog could be locally dense and Dense Fog Advisories may be issued as conditions warrant.
- Where dense fog and ongoing wildfire smoke mix, visibilities may be significantly reduced.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s in Central Florida, and middle to upper 60s in South Florida.
- A high risk for rip currents is expected for Panhandle beaches this afternoon; A moderate risk persists for East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.