Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, February 15th, 2026

• Active weather returns to the Sunshine State after a few days of pleasant conditions and high pressure.
• A squall line of showers and thunderstorms has moved into the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning, bringing some stronger thunderstorm activity along with it (80-near 100% chance of rain).
• The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across most of North Florida, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending through Central Florida and the I-4 corridor this evening and tonight.
• Any of these strong to severe thunderstorms that develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph), an embedded tornado or two, large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy rainfall.
• A Tornado Watch has been issued for much of the Big Bend until the mid-afternoon hours, and may be extended into Northeast Florida later today if conditions warrant.
• Out ahead of this line, gusty winds outside of thunderstorm activity will develop reaching 15-25 mph beginning late this morning and continuing throughout the daytime hours across the state.
• Wind gusts will reach 20-30 mph statewide, with strong gusts of 35-45 mph across North and North-Central Florida.
• Wind Advisories have been issued for most of North Florida through this evening as these gusty winds can be expected outside of thunderstorm activity.
• The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida and along portions of the Nature Coast where some locally heavy rainfall or training of thunderstorms could bring nuisance and localized ponding of water, especially for urban areas.
• Generally, 0.5-1.5” of rainfall can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 2” along the coastal Big Bend and Nature Coast for repeated activity moving onshore from the coast.
• Another brief line of showers looks to follow behind the main line across the I-10 corridor late this afternoon and into the evening bringing an additional round of isolated to widely scattered showers.
• This cold front will continue to push through the state this evening and overnight, weakening and becoming less organized as it crosses through Central Florida overnight (35-50% chance of rain).
• Near sunrise on Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain mostly over South Florida as the cold front makes its final push through the state. 
• High temperatures will reach the 70s across the Panhandle and western Big Bend due to earlier rain chances and cloud cover.
• A delay in shower and thunderstorm activity and pockets of sunshine will allow the rest of the state to see high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
• Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and 60s across Central and South Florida tonight.
• Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds and large ocean swells associated with a cold front moving through the state will bring a moderate to high rip current risk statewide.
• Large long-period ocean swells will create wave heights of 5-7’ along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day.
• High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the Panhandle through this evening for dangerous surf and beach conditions.
• Nuisance to minor coastal flooding near times of high tide may be possible along the Nature Coast with water levels reaching 1-2’ above normally dry ground due to large ocean swells and southerly winds.
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To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report