Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, December 18, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 12/18/2025 10:00 AM EST

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2 
Meteorological Summary:
  • An upper-level disturbance will trek across the northern Gulf waters today ushering in abundant tropical moisture to much of North Florida with a few rounds of showers and embedded thunderstorms expected (80-100% chance of rain).
    • This morning, scattered to numerous showers, some locally heavy at times, will overspread the Panhandle as a large area of rain over the Gulf moves onshore.
    • Towards this afternoon, enough daytime heating may allow for a few additional locally strong thunderstorms to develop across the Big Bend and Nature Coast. A few strikes of lightning and heavy downpours will accompany any stronger activity.
  • There is no organized risk for flash flooding today, however locally heavy downpours may lead to nuisance flooding and ponding of water across the Panhandle.
    • Rainfall totals of 0.5-1" are expected for most locations, however a few localized higher totals upwards of 2-3" cannot be ruled out.
  • This activity will stream north and eastward throughout the day, with Northeast Florida getting in on the action later this morning and afternoon with a few isolated to scattered showers (35-50% chance of rain).
  • A few coastal showers or locally embedded thunderstorms may also drift onshore across the I-95 corridor today, though any activity will be brief in nature (20-40% chance of rain).
  • High temperatures will crest into the upper 60s to middle 70s across North Florida, with lower to middle 80s expected across Central and South Florida.
  • A few scattered showers may linger across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida early overnight as the upper-level disturbance departs the region to the north (40-60% chance of rain).
    • After midnight, a cold frontal passage will bring a few additional isolated showers to the Panhandle (20-30% chance of rain).
  • A few brief sprinkles or an isolated shower is also possible across the I-4 and I-95 corridors overnight (15-20% chance of rain).
  • Low-level moisture will linger across interior South Florida which may promote patchy dense fog development towards daybreak Friday.
  • Low temperatures will begin to cool off again across the Panhandle as the cold front makes its passage, with temperatures reaching the upper 40s over the western Panhandle and middle 50s across the eastern Panhandle.
  • Lows in the 60s are expected for all the Peninsula, with coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys only reaching the lower to middle 70s.
  • A high risk for rip currents are expected for nearly all Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches today, with a moderate risk along all other East Coast beaches.
    • Ocean swells of 3-5' are expected along the East Coast and Panhandle today, lingering through the overnight hours. Waves of 1-2' are expected overnight across West Coast beaches.
 

 

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Morning Situation Report