Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 28, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/28/2025 09:52 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • A weakening cold front will continue to push through South Florida today keeping shower and embedded thunderstorm activity limited to the region this afternoon and evening (20-30% chance of rain).
  • While there is no organized risk for severe weather, locally stronger thunderstorms will be possible and may bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
    • Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be anticipated, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible closer towards the Southeast Florida coast.
  • Behind the cold front, drier conditions return throughout the rest of the state in the wake of a more active period.
  • Moisture on the backside of the frontal system could bring a few spotty sprinkles or showers this afternoon throughout the Panhandle (less than 10% chance of rain).
  • Breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph may develop throughout the day along the Northeast Florida coast as the frontal system.
  • High temperatures will reach the lower 70s across North Florida, upper 70s to lower 80s across Central Florida and middle to upper 80s across South Florida.
  • Another cold front is forecast to approach the western Panhandle near sunrise Wednesday morning bringing scattered showers (30-40% chance of rain). An embedded rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out.
  • Instances of patchy to scattered fog may be possible early Wednesday morning throughout the Suwannee Valley and into Central Florida.
  • Low temperatures will fall into the 50s across North Florida, lower 60s across Central Florida and lower to middle 70s across South Florida.
  • Breezier winds and ocean swells producing wave heights of 5-7' along the Northeast Florida coast will create a high risk for rip currents.
    • The rest of the East Coast and the Panhandle will see a moderate risk for rip currents return.
  • Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the tidal St. Johns River for minor tidal flooding ahead of the next full moon cycle early next week.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor has risen back into moderate flood stage following the recent heavy rainfall on Sunday. Additional forecast points along the headwaters of the St. Johns River are forecast to rise into minor flood stage over the next several days.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Major Hurricane Mellissa is located about 5 miles south-southeast of Negril, Jamaica and is moving north-northeastward at 7 mph. On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to make landfall on Jamaica during the next several hours, move across southeastern Cuba Wednesday morning, and move across the southeastern or central Bahamas later on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 180 mph with higher gusts making Melissa a dangerous category 5 hurricane. Little change in strength is expected before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as an extremely dangerous major hurricane, and it will still be at hurricane strength when it moves across the southeastern Bahamas. Melissa poses no threat to Florida but continues to be monitored.

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Daily Incident Report (October 28, 2025)