Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 27, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/27/2025 10:11 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Another active weather day can be expected across Florida, with a frontal system promoting widespread rain chances nearly statewide (55-80% chance of rain).
  • A band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is currently moving through the Capital City region with the more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorms residing along the US-98 and Forgotten Coast this morning. 
  • The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a small Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather and several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued this morning; locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado or two possible.
  • While the severe thunderstorm risk is not extended eastward, a few thunderstorms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours along the Florida Big Bend this afternoon.
  • Elsewhere across the state, ample moisture will once again support the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms; greatest coverage of activity expected along the I-95 corridor (60-80% chance of rain).
  • East-Central Florida received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours; while a few strong thunderstorms will be possible, additional heavy rainfall and instances of flooding are the primary concerns.
  • Thunderstorm activity will tend to train in nature, or move over the same areas for an extended period of time; already saturated soils and remnant rainfall runoff will lead to a quicker onset to any flash flooding.
  • The Flood Watch has been extended to 8:00 PM EDT this evening for East-Central Florida as heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce rainfall totals upwards of 4-6” through the afternoon and evening hours.
  • There is a high risk of rip currents along the Florida East Coast, with a moderate to high risk for Florida Panhandle beaches.
  • As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is a powerful Category 5 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 160 mph. Melissa is currently about 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and is moving westward at 3 mph.
    • A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning on Tuesday and continuing through at least Thursday.
    • On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
    • Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall on Jamaica early Tuesday.
    • Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida; however, this system continues to be closely monitored.

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report