Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 26, 2025

A frontal system remains situated to the west over the Ark-La-Tex region and is gradually moving westward into the Southeast U.S bringing a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms that remains just on the doorsteps of the western Panhandle.

This first round of showers and thunderstorms is forecast to move into the Panhandle though the afternoon hours before somewhat dissolving once it reaches the US-321 corridor (30-65% chance of rain).

Behind this first wave of activity, is a second round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a stronger cold front that will move into the Panhandle later this evening and more so overnight, bringing the better chance for rain (50-90% chance of rain).

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle through tonight as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible more likely within the second round of activity.

Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph), an isolated tornado or two, instances of large hail and heavy downpours.

The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle where locally heavy downpours could bring instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.

Rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible during repeated downpours.

An upper-level feature off the Florida East Coast will continue to bring breezy conditions across the Peninsula today, especially along the eastern half of the state.

Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph will develop throughout the day, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph closer towards the eastern coastline late this afternoon.

Breezy onshore winds will help to bring moisture across the Peninsula ahead of a warm front draped across the central regions, increasing the chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms (25-45% chance of rain).

As a cold front approaches from the west this evening and overnight, lingering moisture and the upper-level feature off the eastern coastline will allow for additional rounds of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue mainly along the I-95 corridor (30-55% chance of rain).

High temperatures will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida,

Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida will continue to see heat index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon.

Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida and 70s throughout the Peninsula.

A high risk for rip currents continues for nearly all beaches along the Panhandle and East Coast due to dangerous surf of 4-8' and breezy onshore winds.

High Surf Advisories are in effect along the western Panhandle, as well as from the Space Coast through Southeast Florida beaches.

The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor flood stage as water levels continue to very slowly decline.

Major Hurricane Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 120 miles south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica or about 280 miles south-southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba and moving westward at 5 mph. A slow westward motion is expected today, followed by a turn to the north and northeast of Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica through Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba Tuesday night and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph with higher gusts making Melissa a category 4 hurricane. Further rapid intensification is expected through tonight, followed by fluctuations in intensity. Melissa is expected to be a major hurricane when making landfall in Jamaica Monday night or Tuesday morning and southeastern Cuba late Today. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida; however, the distant system will likely bring hazardous beach and surf conditions along portions of the East Coast through early to middle portions of next week.