Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 22nd, 2025

• A weak cold front sweep through North and Central Florida today helping to reinforce dry conditions.
• Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will usher even drier air southward, especially across northern Florida.
• Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will develop with relative humidity values falling below critical thresholds (20-35%) over worsening drought conditions.
• Luckily winds will remain below 10 mph this afternoon.
• A few showers and embedded thunderstorms may develop with enough moisture at the surface (10-15% chance of rain).   
• Any thunderstorm could bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
• High temperatures will reach the lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida.
• The weak front will continue to approach South Florida overnight, which may keep a few spotty showers ongoing ahead of the front itself.
• Otherwise mostly dry conditions can be expected overnight throughout the state, with some instances of patchy fog developing early Thursday morning.
• Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across North Florida, middle to upper 60s across Central Florida and lower to middle 70s across South Florida.
• The moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the Panhandle and East Coast given calmer marine conditions briefly developing
• Coastal Flood Statements remain in place along the Florida Keys for minor tidal flooding.
• The St. Johns River at Astor has fallen below moderate flood stage and into minor flood stage, and will remain there for several days.
• From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
• Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 305 miles south-southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti and moving west-northwestward at 2 mph. A slow forward speed and gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday. Melissa poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be closely monitored.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report