Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 21, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/21/2025 10:01 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Mostly dry and pleasant conditions can be expected across the Sunshine State today.
  • Areas of patchy fog have developed this morning across Northeast Florida and portions of the Peninsula but these conditions will gradually lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours.
  • The lingering cold front from yesterday will remain draped along South Florida keeping widely scattered showers possible with embedded thunderstorms possible (15-30% chance of rain).
    • Any thunderstorm that develops may bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
  • Sensitive wildfire conditions will return across the Panhandle and the Big Bend as relative humidity values fall near critical thresholds (35-40%) over worsening drought conditions.
  • High temperatures will reach the lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
  • Portions of Southwest Florida will continue to see heat index values in the middle 90s near mid-afternoon.
  • Dry conditions can be expected again overnight, with instances of fog developing across much of the state early Wednesday morning.
  • Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle 70s across South Florida.
  • A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along the Panhandle and East Coast as calmer wave action and winds return.
  • Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the Keys where minor tidal flooding will remain possible near and during times of high tide.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to fall below moderate flood stage in the next few days as water levels continue to slowly discharge.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea, Invest 98L, appears to be developing a well-defined center and is already producing winds up to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next day or two. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later today. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be closely monitored.
      • Formation chances through 48 hours...high...near 100%.
      • Formation chances through 7 days...high...near 100%.
 

 

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Morning Situation Report