Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 20th, 2025.

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/20/2025 09:50 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2 
Meteorological Summary:
  • Instances of patchy to locally dense fog has developed this morning across portions of Central and South Florida, but will dissipate as the sun continues to rise.
  • Yesterday's cold front will continue to slowly drag through the Peninsula today bringing isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms south of the I-4 corridor.
  • Lingering moisture will help shower and embedded thunderstorms to develop, especially this afternoon and evening (15-40% chance of rain).
  • Organized severe weather is no expected; however, an embedded strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
    • Thunderstorms may be capable of bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
  • Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will help usher cooler and drier air behind the cold front creating a pleasant fall day.
  • Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will return to the Panhandle today as drier conditions return over worsening drought conditions.
  • High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
  • The frontal boundary will stall along the southern Peninsula and may keep brief isolated showers ongoing along coastal portions of South Florida overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures will fall into the 50s across North Florida, possibly the upper 40s, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
  • A high risk for rip currents continues for the East Coast given onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-5'. A moderate risk has returned for all Panhandle beaches.
  • Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect along the Southeast Florida coast and the Keys given the upcoming new moon creating elevated tides that could lead to minor tidal flooding.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor continues to very slowly decline through moderate flood stage.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • A tropical wave, Invest 98L, over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mostly east of the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15-20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be closely monitored.
      • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50%.
      • Formation chance through 7 days...high...80%.
 

 

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Morning Situation Report