Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 19th, 2025.
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/19/2025 09:58 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are currently moving across the eastern Panhandle this morning ahead of and along a weakening cold front.
- This cold front will continue to push along the I-10 corridor throughout the daytime hours bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms along with it (65-95% chance of rain).
- Enough moisture and some favorable atmospheric conditions may lead to an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two this morning and into the early afternoon hours along the Panhandle and western Big Bend, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
- Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), an isolated funnel cloud or tornado and locally heavy downpours.
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today as the front will quickly move through the Panhandle today.
- Rainfall totals upwards of an inch can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 1-2" possible.
- Once the frontal boundary moves into the Suwannee Valley and into Northeast Florida later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to fall apart and nearly dissipate.
- Just enough moisture ahead of the frontal boundary will allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across the Peninsula this afternoon, with the best chances over interior South Florida and along the Keys (20-45% chance of rain).
- Cloud cover and scattered shower activity will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s across North Florida this afternoon.
- More sunshine and drier conditions will allow high temperatures to reach the middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida.
- Drier conditions will move in from the west across the Panhandle and into the Big Bend behind the front.
- Enough moisture ahead of the front may allow for some light sprinkles or brief showers as it continues to push southward, but the lack of organization should limit widespread activity and possibly thunderstorm activity as well this evening and overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the 50s and lower 60s overnight across North Florida behind the front.
- Ahead of the front, low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s across Central and South Florida.
- Breezy onshore winds and ocean swells ahead of an approaching cold front will create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- Nature Coast beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents while the rest of the West Coast continues to see a low risk.
- Water levels are still forecast to reach 1.5-2’ above normally dry ground near and during times of high tide along portions of the tidal St. Johns River and coastal Northeast Florida, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor continues to very slowly decline through moderate flood stage as onshore winds ease up.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Near the Windward Islands and Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system moves quickly westward at 20-25 mph into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during the middle portion of this week, where environmental conditions could become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could form over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 5-7 days, at least, but continues to be closely monitored.
- *Formation chances through 48 hours... low…10%.
- *Formation chances through 7 days... medium…60%.
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