Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 18th, 2025

• Some patchy fog and mist across interior Northeast Florida will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning.
• Another day of sunny, dry, and pleasant conditions are expected across the Sunshine state as a high pressure remains over the region.
• Onshore winds will keep breezy conditions around for the Southeast Florida coast and Florida Keys today, with wind gusts of 15-20 mph possible this afternoon.
• Given the ongoing drought and very low soil moisture across the Panhandle, locally sensitive wildfire conditions may develop this afternoon despite relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds (40-45% RH values).
• High temperatures will reach the 80s once again throughout the state, with upper 70s along the Northeast beaches.
• The next cold frontal passage will begin to approach the western Panhandle in the late overnight hours towards daybreak Sunday morning.  
• A few marginally strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along this cold front as it approaches the Panhandle in the late-night and early morning hours (50-75% chance of rain).
• A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Thunderstorms has been outlooked for the far western Panhandle through 7am CDT tomorrow.
• A few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.
• This Marginal Risk will then spread eastward across the remainder of the Panhandle tomorrow. 
• Southerly winds will begin to spread a bit of tropical moisture across the Florida Keys which could lead to a few isolated showers overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
• Mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere through tonight.
• Low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s for much of the state.
• Portions of the coastal Panhandle may only dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and warmer temperatures will keep lows in the middle to upper 70s across South Florida and the Keys.
• Across the Suwannee River Valley, cooler temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog may develop before sunrise.
• Ocean swells will remain elevated today with surf of 2-4' expected along the entire Florida East Coast, and upwards of 5' for Treasure Coast beaches, creating a high risk for rip currents.
• Panhandle beaches can expect a moderate to high risk for rip currents ahead of the approaching cold front.
• A Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect for portions of the tidal St. Johns and coastal Northeast Florida where minor coastal flooding is possible near and during times of high tide.
• Minor coastal and saltwater flooding is possible along coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys and a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.
• A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage.
• From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
• North Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. There is a slight chance that the system could become subtropical through tonight before it turns northeastward over cooler waters on Sunday.
• Formation chance through 48 hours... low... 10%.
• Formation chance through 7 days... low... 10%.
• East of the Windward Islands and Caribbean: A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at around 20 mph.  Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night, then move across the Caribbean Sea through much of next week.
• Formation chance through 48 hours... low... near 0%.
• Formation chance through 7 days... low... 30%.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report