Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 12th, 2025.
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/12/2025 10:03 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- In the wake of a passing cold front, northerly to northeasterly winds across the state will usher cooler and drier air across the state.
- Lingering moisture near the front just south of the Keys may create a few brief showers throughout the day (15-25% chance of rain).
- Northeasterly winds flowing onshore along the northeast coastline may bring a few sprinkles or a shower or two near the coastline and onshore, but any activity should remain light and brief and east of the I-95 corridor.
- Wind gusts will be much calmer than the last couple of days reaching upwards of 15-20 mph at times.
- Drier conditions across the Panhandle and western Big Bend will lead to relative humidity values falling near critical thresholds this afternoon.
- With ongoing, and worsening, drought conditions sensitive wildfire conditions will be possible.
- High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s across the state, and heat index values will finally remain below critical thresholds.
- Mostly dry conditions will persist into the overnight hours as mostly clear skies can be expected, with a few lingering showers possible along the Florida Keys overnight (10-15% chance of rain).
- Clear skies will allow for low temperatures to fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida, lower to middle 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
- Large ocean swells and persistent northeasterly winds along the Florida East Coast will create a high risk for rip currents.
- Several Panhandle and Southwest Florida will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect along much of the Northeast Florida coast for dangerous ocean swells of 6-8’ persisting into early this week.
- All other East Coast beaches can expect hazardous surf upwards of 4-6’ throughout the day.
- Minor to moderate coastal flooding continues along the East Coast and within the St. Johns River basin, and Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect for the St. Johns River and the First Coast.
- Beach and coastal erosion will be possible with several days of pounding wave action, especially along vulnerable beaches.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage due to recent coastal action (waves, tides and onshore winds) and these conditions are expected to continue through the weekend and into early next week.
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest 97L): A tropical wave located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some development of this system during the next few days. A tropical depression could form during the early or middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest or northwest at 15-20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... medium…40%.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... medium… 50%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.