Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 7, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/07/2025 09:56 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure along the eastern U.S. will help bring drier conditions for much of North Florida helping to keep shower activity isolated compared to the last few days (15-25% chance of rain).
- Much of the activity will drift inland from adjacent coastal waters with the help of ongoing breezy winds.
- Further south into the Peninsula, the unsettled weather pattern will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
- Activity has been moving onshore along the eastern coastline this morning, and this will continue throughout the day and become more widespread with the help of daytime heating (60-80% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Southeast Florida coast where localized flash flooding will be possible with repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving onshore.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" are anticipated, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible.
- Ongoing elevated coastal flooding may flow runoff from rainfall and lead to additional ponding of water, especially closer towards the coast.
- Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will persist along much of the Florida East Coast leading to wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the state, with portions of West Florida reaching near 90-degrees.
- Heat index values across West and South Florida will reach the middle to upper 90s, and a couple spots reaching 100-degrees cannot be ruled out.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening hours and drift offshore overnight; however, lingering onshore winds along the eastern coastline will continue to bring showers towards the coast across South Florida (25-50% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s and lower 80s across South Florida.
- A high risk for rip currents persists across all East Coast beaches and numerous Panhandle beaches due to breezy onshore winds and large ocean swells.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect along portions of East-Central Florida remain in effect through this evening, especially with wave heights of 4-7' continuing.
- Elevated King Tides, onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding along the East Coast, South Florida and within the St. Johns River.
- Coastal Flood Warnings, Advisories and Statements remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has risen into moderate flood stage given the backed-up water levels within the river basin.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure, Invest 95L, located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated later today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and then near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time. Formation chances are high (90%) for the next 48 hours and 7 days.
- An upper-level disturbance located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. This system poses no threat to Florida. Formation chances are low (10%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.