Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 6, 2025

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Unsettled weather will continue across the state today with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms developing throughout the day.
  • Isolated showers are already moving onshore and inland along portions of the East Coast, and these will continue throughout the day and become more scattered to widespread (50-75% chance of rain).
  • With repeated rounds of downpours over the last of several days, there is an increased risk for localized flash flooding and ponding of water along the I-95 corridor and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
    • Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible following repeated downpours.
    • Flood Watches remain in effect along East-Central Florida through this evening.
  • Breezy winds will continue along portions of the Northeast and East-Central Florida coasts this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times.
  • High temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the state.
    • Heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s throughout the western Peninsula.
  • Isolated to scattered showers should continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours, gradually dissipating and becoming sparse overnight.
    • Easterly winds will continue to bring isolated showers onshore and inland throughout the eastern Peninsula overnight (25-45% chance of rain).
  • Instances of patchy fog will be possible early Tuesday morning across portions of the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley.
  • Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.  
  • Large long-period ocean swells and breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
    • High Surf Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday evening along much of the East Coast for wave heights upwards of 5-8' possible.
  • Elevated King Tides, wave run-up and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding for the Florida East Coast and extending into South Florida and the Keys.
    • Coastal Flood Warnings remain in place for the St. Johns River where significant coastal flooding is possible.
    • Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements extend along the rest of the eastern coastline through South Florida and the Keys.
  • The St. Johns River remains in moderate flood stage due to trapped tides and elevated waters preventing discharge.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • A broad area of low pressure, Invest 95L, associated with a low-latitude tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
      • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50%.
      • Formation chance through 7 days...high...70%.

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report