Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 4th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/04/2025 09:55 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. will continue to promote moist onshore flow over the Florida East Coast today.
- Widely scattered showers are already moving onshore across the eastern Peninsula this morning, and additional scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon during peak heating hours (50-60% chance of rain).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the entire East Coast today for locally heavy rainfall and localized instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
- A few locations along the East Coast have already seen multiple days of heavy rainfall, and any additional rainfall today could lead to an earlier onset to flooding.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of coastal East-Central Florida for possible flooding from excessive rainfall.
- The persistent onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions across much of the state, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible statewide.
- A few higher gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible along the I-95 corridor.
- Drier air further inland will inhibit greater shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the western Peninsula and Panhandle, though a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible (25-40% chance of rain).
- With ample cloud cover and breezy conditions, high temperatures will remain seasonable today, reaching the middle to upper 80s across much of the state.
- Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida may climb into the lower 90s this afternoon if cloud cover from any showers and thunderstorms remain out of the region.
- Heat index values will reach the lower to middle 90s for portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida this afternoon, with upper 80s to lower 90s expected elsewhere.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move onshore off the Atlantic across the East Coast through the evening and overnight hours (45-60% chance of rain).
- Mostly dry conditions are expected across the remainder of the state overnight.
- Low temperatures will reach the lower 70s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s for Central Florida, and middle to upper 70s for South Florida.
- Dangerous rip currents will persist along the Florida East Coast due to breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 5-9'.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for much of the East Coast through the weekend.
- A building ocean swell and breezy winds will also bring a high risk for rip currents and elevated surf of 3-5' for most Panhandle beaches today. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia Counties.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the entire Florida East Coast south to the Upper Keys as onshore winds, high surf, and the approaching full moon will lead to minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide.
- A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the tidal St. Johns River basin and coastal Northeast Florida for possible significant coastal flooding and water levels 1.5-2' above normally dry ground during high tide.
- Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys for minor saltwater flooding.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has returned to moderate flood stage given the trapped elevated waters within the basin and a River Flood Warning remains in effect.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of the wave is possible over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low…near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... medium… 50%.
- Bahamas and Southern Florida: A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few days.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low… near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... low… near 0%.
- North-Central Gulf: A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low… near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... low… near 0%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.