Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 3rd, 2025

• The high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. will continue to promote moist onshore flow over the Florida East Coast today.
• Widely scattered showers are already moving onshore across the eastern Peninsula this morning, and additional scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon (50-80% chance of rain).
• A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across the Treasure Coast with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding extending along the Gold and Space Coasts.
• A Flood Watch is in effect for much of coastal East-Central Florida for possible flooding from excessive rainfall.

• Rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected for most locations along the East Coast, with localized areas receiving upwards of 3-5".

• The persistent onshore flow will also bring breezy conditions across much of the state, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible statewide.
• A few higher gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible along the I-95 corridor.
• Drier air further inland will inhibit greater shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the I-75 corridor, though a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible (25-40% chance of rain).
• High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across the state today with feels like temperatures not deviating much from the actual temperatures.
• Heat index values will reach the lower to middle 90s for portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida this afternoon.
• Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move onshore off the Atlantic across the East Coast through the evening and overnight hours (45-60% chance of rain).
• Mostly dry conditions are expected across the remainder of the state overnight.
• Low temperatures will reach the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s for Central Florida and middle to upper 70s for South Florida.
• Dangerous rip currents will persist along the Florida East Coast due to breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 5-9'. 
• High Surf Advisories remain in effect for much of the East Coast through the end of the week.
• A building ocean swell and breezy winds will also bring a high risk for rip currents and elevated surf of 3-5' for most Panhandle beaches today.
• Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the tidal St. Johns River, First Coast, and coastal Volusia County as onshore winds will trap elevated waters and lead to minor coastal flooding near high tide.
• A Coastal Flood Warning goes into effect this evening through the weekend for possible significant coastal flooding.
• Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for coastal Southeast Florida and the Middle Florida Keys for minor saltwater flooding during or near times of high tide.
• The St. Johns River at Astor has returned to moderate flood stage given the trapped elevated waters within the basin and a River Flood Warning remains in effect.
• From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
• Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.
• Formation chances through 48 hours... low... (near-0%). 
• Formation chances through 7 days... medium... 40%.
• Southwestern Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.
• Formation chances through 48 hours... low... 10%. 
• Formation chances through 7 days... low... 10%.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report