Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, September 18th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/18/2025 10:17 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another wet and active day is expected across the central and southern Peninsula as deep tropical moisture remains in place across the region.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore across coastal South Florida this morning, and additional scattered to widespread activity is expected to develop this afternoon (60-85% chance of rain).
- Moisture will also spread further northward, promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across Central Florida along the sea breeze boundaries (30-55% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across coastal Southeast Florida where localized flash flooding is possible with numerous rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Heavy rainfall in recent days may lead to an earlier onset to flooding, especially in urban areas and over saturated soils.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected across portions of South Florida and the Keys, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
- Across North Florida and the Panhandle, dry conditions will continue to prevail, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out along the coastlines.
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to middle 90s across the state this afternoon with heat index values reaching the lower 90s across South Florida and middle to upper 90s across North and Central Florida.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the overnight and early morning hours across coastal Southeast Florida (40-65% chance of rain), mostly dry elsewhere.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- Instances of patchy dense fog may develop by early Friday morning within the Suwannee River Valley.
- A moderate risk for rip currents extends along all East Coast and numerous Panhandle beaches, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie County.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for the Florida Upper Keys near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have fallen back into minor flood stage as onshore winds have relaxed and allowed for water levels to discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle - As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is located about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwestward at 15 mph. A similar forward motion across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours, but some gradual strengthening is forecast later in the weekend. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic - A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours... low... near-0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days... low...20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.