Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, September 17th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/17/2025 09:45 AM EDT
You are subscribed to the State Watch Office Morning Situation Report via GovDelivery.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Little to no change can be expected across North Florida; however, rain chances will be slightly higher than the last couple of days along portions of the Panhandle and lower Suwannee Valley with increasing moisture (less than 15% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, mostly sunny and dry conditions can be expected across North Florida throughout the day.
- Wet and active weather returns across the Peninsula, especially South Florida and the Keys, with the stalled front slowly inching northward back towards the state.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already begun moving onshore and inland over South Florida and the Keys, and will continue to do so throughout the day becoming more widespread during the peak heating hours (50-80% chance of rain).
- Increasing moisture from south to north will also give way to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity returning across Central Florida this afternoon and evening.
- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water, especially along the Treasure and Southeast Florida coastline - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible.
- Cloud cover and higher rain chances will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida, while more sunshine will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for North Florida.
- Heat index values across portions of the Panhandle, Suwannee Valley and West-Central Florida will reach the middle 90s this afternoon.
- Most of the heavy rainfall should push offshore and over the coastal waters near and around midnight; however, coastal showers and thunderstorms will linger, especially along the East Coast, into the overnight hours.
- By sunrise Thursday, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to push northward over the Florida Keys and the southern Peninsula.
- Mostly dry and calm conditions can be expected throughout the rest of the state overnight, and instances of patchy to locally dense fog may develop by early Thursday morning within the Suwannee River Valley.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida overnight.
- A moderate risk for rip currents extends along all East Coast and numerous Panhandle beaches, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach County.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for the Florida Upper Keys near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have fallen back into minor flood stage as onshore winds have relaxed and allowed for water levels to discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Depression Seven: With the 5:00 AM EDT advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Seven over the central tropical Atlantic. As of 5:00 AM EDT, the system is located about 1,185 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving westward at 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Tropical Depression Seven poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.