Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/16/2025 10:04 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Little to no change from Monday in the forecast can be expected for today.
- Dry and mostly sunny skies persist across North Florida courtesy of northeasterly winds leading to pleasant conditions.
- Breezy winds along the Northeast Florida coast will continue throughout the day with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon.
- Ongoing dry conditions and relative humidity values falling near critical thresholds across the Panhandle may lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions.
- Moisture will creep northward into South Florida, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening (30-55% chance of rain).
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Central Florida along the I-4 corridor as moisture begins to extend northward (15-30% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions continue across South Florida allowing for heat index values to reach the middle to upper 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before a break in activity, and by the early morning hours on Wednesday, additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to drift back towards the coastlines (20-45% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, conditions be expected throughout the overnight hours.
- Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- Ocean swells of 3-5' and onshore winds will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast.
- Panhandle beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- Minor tidal and coastal flooding will continue near and during times of high tide along the tidal St. Johns River and portions of the Keys, and Coastal Flood Statements and Advisories remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains at moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure, Invest 92L, area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...90%.
- A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15-20 mph, moving from the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...low...20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.