Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, September 15, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/15/2025 09:55 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Dry conditions persist across North Florida and into Central Florida courtesy of high pressure along the eastern U.S. leading to pleasant conditions with plenty of sunshine.
  • Breezy wind gusts will continue along the Northeast Florida coast with wind gusts upwards 15-25 mph developing this afternoon.
  • The stalled frontal boundary to the south of the Florida Peninsula will linger through today keeping moisture in place for South-Central and South Florida.
    • Isolated showers will be possible along the Atlantic Coast and south of the I-4 corridor, with scattered activity expected across South Florida later in the day (35-50% chance of rain).
  • There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however, thunderstorm activity may bring instances of heavy downpours that lead to ponding of water in low-lying/urban corridors.
  • High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s across South Florida this afternoon.
    • Heat index values will remain below critical thresholds across North and Central Florida, but muggy conditions across South Florida will keep heat index values in the middle 90s.
  • Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours across South Florida before moving offshore overnight.
    • A few showers may linger overnight along or near the Southeast Florida coast overnight (15-25% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
  • A moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the East Coast due to onshore winds and elevated surf of 3-5'.
    • Panhandle beaches can expect to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
  • Elevated tides will continue to lead to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding along the Florida Keys near and during times of high tide - Coastal Flood Statements.
    • Trapped tides, elevated surf and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor coastal and tidal flooding within the tidal St. Johns River and along the Northeast Florida coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor remains steady within moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • A tropical wave over the central Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the ext. couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
      • Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40%.
      • Formation chance through 7 days...high...80%.

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report