Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, September 14, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/14/2025 10:00 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Drier conditions will infiltrate the Peninsula today as the recent frontal boundary has finally pushed offshore from South Florida.
- While the frontal boundary remains nearby, and moisture associated with the front lingering, additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along portions of Central and South Florida this afternoon and evening (25-45% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today; however, areas might be sensitive to additional rainfall today and could lead to localized ponding of water in urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” possible in heavy downpours from thunderstorm activity.
- Throughout the rest of the state, pleasant and mostly sunny conditions can be expected as northeasterly winds continue to usher drier air southward.
- Breezy northeasterly winds along the Northeast and East-Central Florida coasts will reach upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon, with stronger gusts upwards of 30-35 mph just offshore or along the immediate coastline.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Portions of South Florida will see heat index values reach the middle 90s this afternoon before any shower or thunderstorm activity develops.
- Showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate throughout the evening and overnight hours, with a chance for a lingering shower or two overnight along the I-95 corridor (15-25% chance of rain).
- Breezy winds look to calm down mostly overnight but northern portions of the First Coast could see still wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph overnight.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for nearly all East Coast beaches today, with several Panhandle beaches seeing a moderate risk.
- Large ocean swells will persist across most East Coast beaches today with persistent breezy onshore winds creating wave heights of 4-7’.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for portions of the Upper Florida Keys and coastal Southeast Florida near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- Growing ocean swells and onshore winds will trap elevated tides within tidal portions of the St. Johns River, leading to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide, with a localized instances of moderate coastal flooding possible.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have risen into moderate flood stage.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter. A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.