Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, September 12th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/12/2025 09:57 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped over the southern Peninsula today promoting another wet and active day across Southeast Florida.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore Southwest Florida this morning and additional activity will develop along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon (60-80% chance of rain).
- Isolated to scattered activity is expected along the I-4 corridor this afternoon with a bit more drier air filtering into the region (30-50% chance of rain).
- Even drier conditions are expected across the Panhandle and the Suwannee Valley (0-20% chance of rain).
- Enhanced onshore winds along the First and Space Coasts will bring wind gusts of 15-25 mph and some isolated gusts upwards of 35 mph.
- A wind advisory may be issued for the First Coast if conditions warrant later today.
- With these onshore winds, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along the Northeast coastlines and move inland in the afternoon (20-45% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of South Florida and the East Coast today with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across Southeast Florida.
- Repeated rounds of rainfall on saturated soils could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Some locally strong thunderstorms across South and Central Florida will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions will persist across far South Florida and the Keys where heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s; North and Central Florida can expect heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the evening and into the overnight hours along portions of the East Coast (50-60% chance of rain), dry elsewhere.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida and the Keys.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide today.
- Wave heights of 3-5’are expected for Florida East Coast beaches, with some surf upwards of 6' in the surf zone for First Coast beaches.
- Minor coastal and tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River and the First Coast due to elevated surf, tides, and onshore winds, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
- Nuisance and minor coastal/saltwater flooding will be possible for portions of the Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade County coastlines and Upper Keys - a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor flood stage due to trapped tides and northerly winds.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by the middle part of next wee while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through the next 48 hours... low..near-0%.
- Formation chance through the next 7 days... medium...40%.
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