Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, September 11th, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/11/2025 10:01 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Northerly winds will keep dry conditions in place across the Panhandle and North Florida today (near-0 to 10% chance of rain).
  • A remaining stationary front and the afternoon sea breezes will promote isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms across the I-4 corridor and Central Florida (15-45% chance of rain), with more widespread activity over South Florida (65-85% chance of rain).
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of South Florida with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across Southeast Florida and the Miami metropolitan area.
    • Repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water, and saturated soils and grounds may lead to an earlier onset to flooding especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
    • Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible with any repeated downpours.
  • High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
    • Warm and muggy conditions will persist across South Florida where heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s to near triple digits (100-102-degrees); North Florida will see heat index values in the middle 80s.
  • Showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the evening and into the overnight hours along portions of the East Coast (50-60% chance of rain), remaining dry elsewhere.
  • Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
  • A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide today.
  • Panhandle beaches can expect to see wave heights of 2-3’ throughout the day, with wave heights of 2-5’ for Florida East Coast beaches.
  • First Coast beaches may see wave heights upwards of 6’, especially in the surf zone. 
  • Minor coastal and tidal flooding will continue along the St. Johns River and the First Coast due to elevated surf, tides and onshore winds, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
    • Nuisance and minor coastal/saltwater flooding will be possible for portions of the Mainland Monroe, Palm Beach, and Broward County coastlines and Upper Keys - a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor flood stage due to trapped tides and northerly winds.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge offshore of west Africa by Friday.  Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system over the weekend into early next week as the wave moves to the west or west-northwest at about 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
      • Formation chance through the next 48 hours... low..near-0%.
      • Formation chance through the next 7 days... low...30%.

 

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report