Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, September 5th, 2025

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2 
Meteorological Summary:
  • A stationary front will remain draped across the southern Peninsula today keeping rainfall chances focused across Central and South Florida.
  • Showers and embedded thunderstorms are already moving onshore Southwest Florida this morning and additional rounds of activity will continue throughout the day (70-90% chance of rain).
    • More scattered activity will occur across Central Florida and the I-4 corridor (30-50% chance of rain).
  • With recent heavy rainfall, some localized areas may be prone to an earlier onset to flash flooding and ponding of water.
    • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across South Florida.
  • Mostly dry conditions will persist throughout North Florida and the Panhandle; however, a shower or embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the Northeast Florida and Nature Coast along the sea breeze (15-25% chance of rain).
  • Some breezy onshore winds may bring gusts of 15-20 mph for portions of the First and Space Coasts throughout the day.
  • High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state this afternoon.
    • Heat index values from the Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula will remain in the middle to upper 90s due to cloud cover further south and drier air further north.
    • Some lower 100s may be reached in localized areas across West-Central Florida before rainfall this afternoon.
  • Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening and overnight hours across South Florida and the Keys as they move inland and eastward from the gulf waters (40-80% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida and middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
  • A moderate risk for rip currents will continue nearly statewide today with some breezy onshore winds and elevated swells.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor has risen into minor flood stage, and will continue to see elevated water levels throughout the week.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Tropical Atlantic (91L): A low pressure system over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system and a tropical depression is likely as the system moves slowly westward at 5 to 10 mph this weekend. This system is likely near the lesser Antilles by the middle to latter part of next week.
      • Formation chance through 48 hours... medium...60%.
      • Formation chance through 7 days... high...90%.

 

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Morning Situation Report