Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, September 01, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/01/2025 09:50 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The wet and active pattern will continue across Northeast Florida and the Peninsula as the stalled frontal boundary from the last couple of days continues to sag southward.
- A non-tropical area of low pressure looks to develop along or just off the Florida East Coast today, helping to bring showers and thunderstorms onshore along the eastern half of the Peninsula.
- Additional rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the afternoon and evening hours, especially along the eastern half of the Peninsula (65-85% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the I-95 corridor and the eastern Peninsula where locally heavy downpours from thunderstorms could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4” possible.
- With this disturbance developing, breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph, and 25-35 mph along the coast, will also develop across northeast and central portions of the Peninsula.
- A Wind Advisory has been posted for portions of the Northeast Florida coast through the late afternoon hours.
- Drier air will continue to filter into the Panhandle on the backside of the stalled frontal boundary, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated and closer towards the coast where the sea breeze will likely remain pinned (10-20% chance of rain).
- Warm and muggy conditions will continue throughout the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of the I-4 corridor, this afternoon as heat index values will reach the middle 90s to lower 100s (100-104-degrees).
- With a non-tropical area of low pressure attempting to develop just offshore from the eastern Peninsula, showers and thunderstorms may linger throughout the overnight hours along the and east of the I-95 corridor (35-50% chance of rain).
- Ocean swells and breezy onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches nearly statewide.
- A High Surf Advisory has been posted for the Northeast Florida coast due to dangerous ocean swells of 5-8' developing throughout the day.
- A River Flood Warning has been issued for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels are forecast to rise into or just above minor flood stage throughout the week.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system. A tropical depression could form late this week or weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.