Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, August 24, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/24/2025 10:01 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Another wet and rainy day can be expected once again for much of the Sunshine State today as weak cold front remains nearly stationary along the northern Peninsula allowing for tropical moisture to pool ahead of it.
  • Westerly winds are already bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms inland from the adjacent gulf waters this morning, and this trend will continue throughout the day with coverage becoming more widespread (65-85% chance of rain).
  • The help of daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will allow for additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day across the Peninsula.
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across most of the Peninsula as repeated rounds of downpours and training thunderstorms could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
  • Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-7” possible, especially along the Florida West Coast.
  • Some drier air will filter into the northern Panhandle on the backside of the front keeping shower and thunderstorm chances more isolated to widely scattered this afternoon and evening,
  • Extensive cloud cover and widespread rain chances will keep temperatures slightly “cooler” in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
    • Heat index values will remain in the middle to upper 90s across most of the state, with portions of South Florida and the Keys reaching triple digits (100-108-degrees).
  • Some persistent shower activity will continue along the Florida West Coast, and then move eastward, during the overnight hours as onshore winds continue (35-65% chance of rain).
  • Instances of patchy fog may be possible early Monday morning across upper portions of the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.
  • Low temperatures behind the front will drop into the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle.
    • Central and South Florida will continue to see low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and even the lower 80s across the portions of the West Coast and the Keys.
  • Ocean swells of 2-5' along the Florida East Coast will continue to lead to a high risk for rip currents. A moderate risk can be expected for nearly all Panhandle and West Coast beaches due to southwesterly to westerly onshore winds.
  • Nuisance and minor coastal flooding may be possible within low-lying lots and poor drainage areas along the Upper Keys near and during times of high tide - Coastal Flood Statement.
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Tropical Storm Fernand: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Fernand was located about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda and moving north-northeastward at 15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but then a weakening trend is expected by Tuesday. Fernand poses no threat to Florida.
    • East of the Windward Islands (Invest 99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does no appear to have a surface circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20-25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
      • *Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%.
      • *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.

 

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Morning Situation Report