Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, August 23rd, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/23/2025 09:55 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A weak cold front slowly drifting south across southern Alabama and Georgia will help focus abundant tropical moisture across the entire state today (60-90% chance of rain).
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Big Bend and North Florida this morning and will slowly move south and east.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze this afternoon during peak heating hours.
- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked for Northeast Florida, the I-10 corridor, and south along the Nature Coast; A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is outlooked south to the I-4 corridor and across the western Panhandle.
- Saturated soils and repeated rounds of heavy downpours may lead to localized instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
- Far South Florida and the Florida Keys will remain further away from the deeper tropical moisture, keeping rainfall chances more scattered in nature (30-60% chance of rain).
- Any embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorm across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions are expected today, though “cooler” than previous days with abundant cloud cover and rainfall.
- High temperatures will only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across North and Central Florida with feels like temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
- South Florida may see temperatures climb into the middle 90s yielding heat index values in the lower 100s (100-103-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and early overnight hours before dissipating and drifting offshore after midnight.
- Some showers and thunderstorms will re-emerge over the West Coast by early daybreak on Sunday (40-70% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the lower to upper 70s.
- A high risk for rip currents persists along all East Coast beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for Panhandle and Sun Coast beaches along the Gulf.
- Wave heights will remain elevated today peaking at 3-5’ for much of the East Coast this afternoon. Further offshore wave heights may exceed 5’.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Southwestern Atlantic (90L): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Some impacts are likely in Bermuda. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Formation chance through 48 hours… high… 80%.
- Formation chance through 7 days… high… 90%.
- Central Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance are located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands and have become less organized over the past 24 hours due to strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours… low… 10%.
- Formation chance through 7 days… low… 20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.