Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, August 22nd, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/22/2025 10:04 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A wet and unsettled weekend is on tap for much of the Sunshine state as a weak cold front across the Southeast U.S. stalls across North Florida.
- Much of the same can be expected each day with North Florida receiving repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours (80-90% chance of rain).
- Ample tropical moisture, this cold front, and the afternoon sea breeze boundaries will promote localized flooding and ponding of water across North Florida; a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked each day.
- Some of these showers and thunderstorms may be slow-moving, and any areas that receive prolonged heavy downpours may experience flash flooding.
- Across South Florida, showers and thunderstorms are also expected each day but will be more scattered in nature (40-70% chance of rain).
- Any of these daily embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Afternoon high temperatures will be held in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values struggling to reach the triple digits across North Florida with more abundant cloud cover.
- Across Central and South Florida, a bit less cloud coverage and lower rainfall chances will allow heat index values to climb into the lower to middle 100s (100-105-degrees).
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will generally subside across interior portions of the Peninsula into the evening hours.
- However, the stalled cold front across North Florida and the Big Bend region may promote lingering showers and thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours each night (30-60% chance of rain).
- Overnight low temperatures will reach the lower to upper 70s statewide.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Near the Leeward Islands (90L): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward. Formation chances are high (80-90%) over the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Central Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands has become less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. Formation chances are medium (40-50%) over the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
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