Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, August 21st, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/21/2025 10:03 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Westerly flow will return across the Sunshine state bringing a typical summertime pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the afternoon sea breeze statewide (50-70% chance of rain).
- The greatest chance of rain is across the Panhandle where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked.
- Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms may produce localized flash flooding and ponding of water, especially with any slow-moving thunderstorms.
- A general 1-2" of rain is expected in most locations statewide, with locally higher totals of 3-5" in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- Any thunderstorm across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions will persist with high temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 90s across the state; heat index values will reach into the triple digits (102-106-degrees).
- Some locations in South Florida may briefly reach heat advisory criteria this afternoon, though a widespread advisory is unlikely.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and early overnight hours, especially across North Florida (30-45% chance of rain), before dissipating and drifting offshore after midnight.
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s.
- Distant Hurricane Erin will continue to bring a high risk for rip currents along all East Coast beaches due to dangerous ocean swells. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous and life-threatening ocean swells of 4-8' will persist along the Florida East Coast throughout the day due to distant Hurricane Erin.
- High Surf Advisories remain posted for all First, Space, and Treasure Coast beaches through today as ocean swells remain elevated.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Hurricane Erin is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by an acceleration toward the east-northeast Friday and this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts, making Erin a category 2 hurricane. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days and Erin is expected to become post-tropical this weekend.
- Near the Leeward Islands: An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. Formation chances are medium (40%) through the next 48 hours and high (70%) through the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for development over the next day while it moves west-southwestward at 15 mph. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chances are medium (40%) through 48 hours and the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located 1200 miles southwest of the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next few days. Formation chances are low (30%) through the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.