Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, August 20th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/20/2025 10:04 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms are currently offshore the east coast of Florida this morning associated with the outer circulation of distant Hurricane Erin.
- Onshore winds and the sea breeze will push some of these showers and thunderstorms onto the East Coast throughout the day remaining isolated to scattered in nature (30-55% chance of rain).
- Drier air across the state will keep much of the western Peninsula and North Florida with modest rainfall chances (15-35% chance of rain) while a bit more elevated over the western Panhandle (30-50% chance of rain).
- Some breezier winds of 15-20 mph can be expected along the East Coast with offshore Hurricane Erin.
- Some locally higher wind gusts upwards of 25 mph could occur across Northeast Florida.
- Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
- Instances of nuisance street flooding and ponding of water will be possible with any heavy downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms.
- Warm and muggy conditions will remain today with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s.
- Heat index values will continue to reach triple digits (100-107-degrees) in the early to mid-afternoon for much of the state.
- A Heat Advisory for dangerous heat index values upwards of 110-degrees will go into effect this afternoon across Southeast Florida.
- Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate by the evening and early overnight hours, though may linger along the coastlines and push back onshore Thursday morning over Southwest Florida (15-35% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s.
- Distant Hurricane Erin will bring a high risk for rip currents along all East Coast beaches due to onshore winds and dangerous ocean swells. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous and life-threatening ocean swells of 5-10' will peak along the Florida East Coast throughout the day due to distant Hurricane Erin.
- High Surf Advisories have been posted for numerous First, Space, and Treasure Coast beaches through Thursday as ocean swells remain elevated.
- Wave activity, onshore winds and high astronomical tides may lead to instances of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion along portions of the Florida East Coast.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the Northeast Florida coastline through 11pm this evening.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Hurricane Erin is expected to turn north and north-northeastward today and tonight, followed by a faster forward motion toward the northeast and east-northeast Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, with higher gusts, making Erin a category 2 hurricane. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to bring on Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend.
- Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves near or north of the Leeward Islands. Formation chances remain low (10%) through the next 48 hours and medium (60%) over the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 99L): A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chances are medium (40%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.
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