Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, August 19, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/19/2025 10:02 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Drier air will begin to filter southward towards the I-10 today, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity mostly isolated for the most northern parts of the state.
- Elsewhere across the state, the typical summertime thunderstorm afternoon thunderstorm pattern can be expected with scattered showers and thunderstorms (45-75% chance of rain).
- Brief isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely move onshore along the east coast, especially with elevated onshore winds.
- Thunderstorms that develop throughout the day will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
- Distant Hurricane Erin will not pose a direct threat to Florida and will remain well offshore from Florida, but will bring gusty winds 15-20 mph, with locally stronger gusts upwards of 25 mph, along the Florida East Coast.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected to develop throughout the afternoon and evening hours, with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s.
- Heat index values will continue to reach triple digits (100-107-degrees) by the early to mid-afternoon hours throughout the state, and remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria.
- Mostly quiet and dry conditions can be expected overnight with lingering breezy winds along the Florida East Coast.
- These onshore winds may allow for isolated or spotty showers to move onshore during the early morning hours on Wednesday (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s.
- Dangerous and life-threatening ocean swells of 4-7' and rip currents will develop along the Florida East Coast throughout the day due to distant Hurricane Erin.
- High Surf Advisories have been posted for numerous First and Space Coast beaches through later this week as ocean swells continue to grow.
- Wave activity, onshore winds and high astronomical tides may lead to instances of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion along portions of the Florida East Coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories may be needed later today.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC)
- Hurricane Erin remains a large category 2 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 110 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are possible over the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Erin will pass east of the Bahamas today and today, and then move over the western Atlantic between the U.S. east coast and Bermuda on Wednesday and Thursday. Erin will bring dangerous rip currents and surf along the Florida East Coast through the mid-week.
- Near the Leeward Islands in Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances are low (10%) through the next 48 hours and medium (60%) through the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 99L): A tropical wave located a couple of hundred miles to the southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances are low (30%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.