Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, August 17, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/17/2025 10:11 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Instances of locally dense fog have developed this morning over the Suwannee River Valley and Northeast Florida, and will dissipate throughout the morning hours.
- A mostly typical summertime day can be expected across the state with high pressure remaining in place along the eastern U.S. with afternoon showers and thunderstorms throughout most of the state (40-80% chance of rain).
- A weak frontal boundary over Northeast Florida will help to enhance afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the afternoon and evening, especially with the help of the sea breeze.
- Some drier pockets of air will filter into the Panhandle, as well as coastal Southeast Florida, which may keep shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated and sparse in nature.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout most of the state due to localized flash flooding possible within heavy and intense downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected throughout the state with high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s and heat index values will climb into triple digits (100-107-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate and shift offshore throughout the overnight hours and remain over the adjacent coastal waters before drifting back onshore early Monday morning (15-35% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s overnight.
- Breezy winds and increasing ocean swells will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along most East Coast beaches. Several Panhandle beaches can also expect a moderate risk.
- From the National Hurricane Center:
- Major Hurricane Erin - As of 8:00 AM EDT, Erin is located about 170 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico and moving west-northwest at 14 mph. This motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected today, following by a gradual turn to the north on Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the core of Erin is expected to pass to the east of Turks and Caicos and then southeastern Bahamas tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 125 mph with higher gusts, and Erin is a category 3 hurricane. Some fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next day or two. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida, however elevated surf and a high risk for rip currents can be expected across Florida East Coast beaches this next week.
- Northwestern Atlantic – A broad area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the coast of North Carolina is producing showers and thunderstorms well to the east of its center. Development, if any, of this system should be slow to occur during the next day or so while its drifts eastward. The opportunity for development should end on Monday when environmental upper-level wind conditions are expected to be unfavorable. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
- Central Tropical Atlantic – A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development of this system is possible during the middle to latter portion of the week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored..
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low… near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.