Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, August 15th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/15/2025 09:45 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A high-pressure system will continue to move across the state today bringing a typical summertime pattern statewide with afternoon showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze boundaries.
- Slow-moving showers and thunderstorms will develop along the coastlines early this afternoon before pushing inland throughout the afternoon and evening (20-50% chance of rain).
- Some drier air will filter in across South Florida, keeping rainfall chances more modest (15-30% chance of rain).
- These showers and embedded thunderstorms statewide will be slow-moving, posing a local risk for flash flooding wherever any prolonged or repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.
- The greatest chance for localized flash flooding and ponding of water is across far Northeast Florida where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked.
- Some of these thunderstorms may also be locally strong to severe with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Afternoon high temperatures will reach the lower to upper 90s across the state, with heat index values reaching triple digits statewide.
- Dangerously hot and humid conditions will develop for much of North and Central Florida, including the Panhandle, and Heat Advisories will go into effect again today for heat index values reaching 106-112-degrees.
- Although Southeast Florida is likely to remain just below heat advisory criteria, a short-term advisory could be issued this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate with loss of daytime heating throughout the evening before isolated showers drift back towards the coastlines near sunrise Saturday morning (10-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s statewide.
- Breezy onshore winds will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along most Panhandle beaches. East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents as well.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Storm Erin - As of 8:00 AM EDT, Erin remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph and higher gusts. Erin is located about 520 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving west-northwestward at 17 mph. This general motion is expected to continue into the weekend. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Steady strengthening is forecast to continue today and Erin is expected to become a hurricane later Friday, and may become a major hurricane this weekend. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be monitored.
- Southwestern Gulf - Showers and thunderstorms have persisted associated with a disturbance located 75 miles off the coast of northeastern Mexico and Southern Texas. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression before moving onshore this afternoon or evening. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is possible along portions of the northeastern Mexico and southern Texas coast over the next few days. Formation chances are medium (50%) through the next 48 hours and medium (50%) through the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.