Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, August 14th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/14/2025 09:40 AM EDT
You are subscribed to the State Watch Office Morning Situation Report via GovDelivery.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A high-pressure system will move over the state today bringing a bit of a reprieve from the recent rainfall statewide, however a return of more dangerous heat and humidity.
- Isolated showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline this morning and will become more scattered throughout the afternoon and evening (40-60% chance of rain).
- Across the Peninsula, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop along the daily sea breeze boundaries and push inland into the interior Peninsula this afternoon (30-60% chance of rain).
- These showers and embedded thunderstorms will be slow-moving, posing a local risk for a quick 2-4" of rain and flash flooding wherever any prolonged or repeated rounds of thunderstorms occur.
- Some of these thunderstorms may also be locally strong with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Afternoon high temperatures will reach the lower to middle 90s across the state, with heat index values reaching triple digits statewide.
- Dangerously hot and humid conditions will develop along and east of the US-301 corridor, and Heat Advisories will go into effect again today for heat index values reaching 106-110-degrees.
- Although Southeast Florida is likely to remain just below heat advisory criteria, a short-term advisory could be issued this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate throughout the overnight hours before isolated showers drift back onshore along the coastlines near sunrise Friday morning (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
- There is a moderate to high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle beaches. East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents.
- From the National Hurricane Center:
- Tropical Storm Erin - As of 5:00 AM EDT, Erin remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and higher gusts. Erin is located about 990 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and moving westward at 17 mph. This general motion is expected to continue today, with a west-northwestward motion beginning tonight and continuing into the weekend. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to move near or just north of the northern Leeward Islands over the weekend. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin today with more significant strengthening into a hurricane Friday and Saturday. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be monitored.
- Southwestern Gulf - A tropical wave over the Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move west-northwestward over the Southwestern Gulf over the next day or two where conditions are marginally conducive for development. The system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico or southern Texas by late Friday, ending its chances of tropical cyclone formation. Formation chances are low (20%) through the next 48 hours and low (20%) through the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.