*Correction* Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, August 12th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/12/2025 10:22 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An upper-level disturbance over the northern gulf waters will continue to pull tropical moisture northward across the Panhandle and West Florida, leading to increased shower and thunderstorm activity.
- Showers and thunderstorms remain just offshore along the coastal Panhandle and Big Bend, and the West Coast, but will gradually move inland this morning and throughout the day (80-near 100% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle, Big Bend and West Coast of Florida for localized flash flooding possible.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible especially closer towards the coast.
- A more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern will return for the rest of the state with showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze (55-70% chance of rain).
- Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with high temperatures in the 80s and lower 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s to middle 100s (100-105-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate in the late evening and overnight hours across the state; however, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will return during the early morning hours along the Panhandle (45-65% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower 80s overnight throughout the state.
- The moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the Florida East Coast due to onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-4'. Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 97L) - Shower and thunderstorm has persisted and continues to show signs of organization with a well-defined area of low pressure located just to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. If these structural trends continue, the system is likely to become a tropical depression or storm, possibly as soon as later this morning. Regardless of development over the next couple of days, the system is expected to continue moving westward to west-northwestward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Formation chances remain high (90%) over the next 48 hours and 7 days. This poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
- Central Atlantic (Invest 96L) - A weak upper-level disturbance over the central Atlantic is only producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Formation chances have decreased to 10% (low) through the 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Northwestern Atlantic - A non-tropical area of low pressure is currently located a few hundred miles to the south-southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada. Formation chances are low (10%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.