Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, August 12th, 2025

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 08/12/2025 10:00 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • The Florida Panhandle can expect a near repeat of yesterday as an upper-level disturbance over the northern gulf waters will continue to bring rounds of heavy rainfall throughout the day.
  • Scattered showers moving onshore and inland along the Panhandle this morning will continue to do so throughout the day becoming more widespread in the afternoon and evening hours (80-near 100% chance of rain).
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) continues to outlook a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle, especially along the coast, where additional rounds of repeated downpours could lead to localized flash flooding.
    • Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible, especially for the western Panhandle.
  • High pressure returns along the western Atlantic and over the Florida Peninsula allowing for a more typical summertime thunderstorm pattern throughout the rest of the state (45-75% chance of rain).
  • Warm and muggy conditions will continue as high temperatures reach the middle 80s to middle 90s and heat index values reach the upper 90s to middle 100s (100-107-degrees).
    • With increased cloud cover and elevated rain chances along the Panhandle, slightly "cooler" conditions can be anticipated.
  • Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate throughout the late evening and overnight hours across the state before showers begin to move back onshore early Wednesday morning (15-30% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
  • A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along Panhandle and East Coast beaches. 
  • From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
    • Tropical Storm Erin - As of 5:00 AM EST, Erin remains a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds near 45 mph about 690 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands and moving westward at 22 mph. This westward motion is expected to continue with a decrease in forward speed and a gradual turn toward the west-northwest. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and Erin is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple of days. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
    • Northwestern Tropical Atlantic - A non-tropical area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms west of its center. Formation chances remain low (10%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
    • North-Central Gulf - A surface disturbance near the coast of Louisiana is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Development of this system is not anticipated before it moves inland later today, and locally heavy rainfall could produce flash flooding across portions of the northern Gulf coast over the next day or so. Formation chances remain low (near 0%) over the next 48 hours and 7 days.
 

 

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