Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, July 23rd, 2025

• Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain just offshore over the Atlantic waters, but these will gradually move inland as an upper-level disturbance approaches.
• This disturbance moving overhead will help to increase daily shower and thunderstorm activity leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening (70-near 100% chance of rain).
• Breaks in cloud cover and thunderstorm activity may allow for locally embedded strong to severe thunderstorms, and thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
• Tropical moisture across the state will lead to an increased risk for flash flooding and ponding of water across the state with heavy and intense downpours, and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the state.
• Heat index values will continue to reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-110-degrees) across the state despite increased rain chances.
• A later start to shower and thunderstorm activity will allow for the western Panhandle to experience hot and humid conditions, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for heat index values upwards of 110-degrees expected.
• As the disturbance shifts westward towards the Panhandle or northeastern Gulf waters overnight, shower and thunderstorm activity will also shift westward and may linger along the coastlines overnight (40-60% chance of rain).
• Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 70s across the state, with portions of Southeast Florida and the Keys reaching the lower 80s.
• A moderate risk of rip currents for most Panhandle beaches today.
• North-Central Gulf: A weak low-pressure system near the southeastern U.S. coast is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Over the next day or two, this system will move westward into the north-central Gulf where some slow development is possible before it moves inland, ending its chances for development. Regardless of development, local heavy rainfall is possible for portions of Florida over the next day or so, and for the northern Gulf coast through this weekend.

       *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.

       *Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.