Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, July 4th, 2025
Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 07/04/2025 09:54 AM EDT
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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another day of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the Peninsula courtesy of abundant moisture and the nearby disturbance off the Northeast Florida coast (70-95% chance of rain).
- Daytime heating and the nearby disturbance will allow for widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to develop, and may lead to embedded strong to severe thunderstorms.
- Frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours will be possible within stronger thunderstorms.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Peninsula for possible flash flooding and ponding of water with repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- Slightly drier conditions across the Panhandle will lead to more isolated to scattered activity this afternoon along the sea breeze.
- Elevated cloud cover and widespread rain chances will create high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout the Peninsula, while high temperatures across the Panhandle will reach the middle 90s with the delayed start of rain.
- sw will continue to reach the lower to middle 90s throughout Central and South Florida, while North Florida will see values in the upper 90s to lower 100s (100-102-degrees).
- As the disturbance meanders towards the northeast and away from the Florida coastline, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to dissipate and move offshore overnight.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to linger overnight along the Florida West Coast (45-65% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 70s throughout the state and lower 80s for the Keys.
- A moderate risk for rip currents returns for Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches.
- Recent heavy rainfall and repeated rounds of additional shower and thunderstorm activity anticipated could lead to water levels within West-Central Florida rivers and waterways to gradually rise, possible reaching Action Stage (bank-full) over the next few days.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Near the Southeastern U.S. (Invest 92L): Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with an area of low pressure located about 100 miles off the northeast Florida coast. Environmental conditions are forecast to be marginally conducive for further development, and a short-lived tropical or subtropical depression could form late today or on Saturday while the system drifts northward. This low is expected to move inland over the Southeastern U.S. Saturday night or early Sunday. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later today. Regardless of development, an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected along Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula during the next 5 days. An increase in flooding potential can be expected along the Florida West Coast and for several urban, low-lying/poor drainage areas through the weekend.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…60%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%.
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