Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for [[Current Date]]

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 06/25/2025 10:00 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • A shift away from the “routine” summer weather pattern expected for North Florida today, courtesy of an upper-level disturbance migrating westward to the Sunshine State.
  • Thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening (35-45% chance of rain), becoming increasingly numerous from northeast to southwest tonight into early Thursday morning (40-60% chance of rain).
  • Ingredients are supportive for more organized severe weather, and there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across North Florida to the I-10/I-75 interchange; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extends south to the I-4 corridor.
  • Embedded damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), frequent lightning, flooding rainfall rates, and instances of large hail (1-1.5” in diameter, or quarter to ping pong ball size) possible. 
  • Computer model guidance this morning has hinted at a more organized cluster of thunderstorms moving southwestward from the Mid Atlantic states to North Florida late this evening into Thursday morning.
    • Trends within the guidance will be monitored through the day regarding the development and evolution of this thunderstorm activity.
  • Elsewhere, shower and thunderstorms will become increasingly numerous through the afternoon hours (60-80% chance of rain), with a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms
  • Triple digit heat indices (99 to 105-degrees) can be expected across North and West Florida, with a few Florida Panhandle locations meeting and/or exceeding Heat Advisory criteria (105 to 110-degrees) for brief periods this afternoon.
  • An elevated risk of rip currents can be expected for Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches, high risk conditions continue along Southeast Florida Coast. 
  • Tropical development is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days. 
 

 

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Morning Situation Report