Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, November 19th, 2024.

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 11/19/2024 10:02 AM EST

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2 
Meteorological Summary:
  • An upper-level disturbance moving across the Midwest U.S. will allow for scattered to widespread showers, with embedded thunderstorms, to develop along a frontal system along the Gulf Coast states (75-near 100% chance of rain).
  • Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will gradually move eastward throughout the day across the I-10 corridor along and ahead of an approaching cold front.
  • The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the western Panhandle as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible.
    • Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), an isolated tornado or two and heavy downpours.
  • Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected outside of thunderstorm activity, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph near the coastline and coastal waters.
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the western Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending thought the Apalachicola River as widespread rainfall may allow for instances of localized flooding.
  • Mostly dry conditions can be expected across the Peninsula as high pressure over the western Atlantic continues to create dry conditions and breezy wind gusts of 10-20 mph.
  • The frontal system will continue to move eastward along the Panhandle and towards the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida region overnight, allowing for shower and thunderstorm activity to spread eastward through Central Florida (45-80% chance of rain).
  • Gusty onshore winds and elevated surf of 4-7' will create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected throughout all Peninsula beaches.
  • Elevated water levels and onshore winds ahead of the approaching cold front will give way to instances of minor coastal flooding along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline, and Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued.
    • Lingering elevated tides from the King Tides will continue to create instances of minor coastal flooding within the tidal portions of the St. Johns River and the Florida Keys.
  • Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River; however, the Withlacoochee River near Dunnellon is forecast to fall below flood stage within the next day.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.