Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, November 4, 2024

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 11/04/2024 09:58 AM EST

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • High pressure along the Eastern Seaboard continue to persist and extend southward across the state bringing mostly dry conditions across North and West Florida.
  • Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will remain possible across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to ongoing dry conditions, even through relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds.
  • Breezy onshore winds will allow for isolated showers over the adjacent Atlantic waters to drift onshore and push westward throughout the day, but drier conditions aloft should limit thunderstorm development and keep shower activity relatively light and brief (15-30% chance of rain).
  • Northeasterly to easterly winds of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop statewide by this afternoon, with stronger winds of 15-25 mph south of Lake Okeechobee through the Florida Keys.
    • Wind gusts of 10-15 mph can be expected to develop across North Florida by the early afternoon, with stronger wind gusts of 15-25 mph across Central and South Florida, possibly upwards of 30 mph along the coastal Southeast Florida waters.
  • High temperatures will continue to trend above normal for this time of year reaching the 80s statewide.
  • Please remember heat safety when working out in the field by taking breaks from direct sunlight and drink plenty of water.
  • Drier conditions can be expected to continue overnight as showers dissipate; however, a lingering stray shower or two may be possible. 
    • A plume of moisture traveling westward from the Bahamas will bring isolated to scattered showers, with possible embedded thunderstorms, towards the Southeast Florida coast and Keys late overnight or early Tuesday morning (20-40% chance of rain).
  • Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight or early Tuesday morning along the northern I-75 corridor and Suwannee Valley.
  • Hazardous beach and boating conditions can be expected for the East Coast due to high surf of 5-8' and persistent onshore winds. Panhandle beaches can also expect a high risk for rip currents due to increasing surf of 2-5'.
  • Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels hold steady and slowly decline.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
    • Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen: As of 7:00 AM EST, Potential Tropical Cyclone Eighteen is located about 220 miles south of Kingston, Jamaica and moving northward at 7 mph. A northwestward motion is expected later today and forecast to continue for the next few days. On the forecast track, the system is expected to move near Jamaica this evening, by near or over the Cayman Islands on Tuesday and approach Cuba on Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. The disturbance is expected to become a tropical depression or storm today with additional strengthening forecast thereafter. The system could be near or at hurricane intensity when it passes near the Cayman Islands and Cuba. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, an increase in rain chances, surf and breezy conditions can be expected to develop across the Keys and extend northward along the West Coast by mid to late week regardless of development of this system.
    • *Formation chance through 48 hours…high…near 100%.  *Formation chance through 7 days…high…near 100%.
    • Subtropical Storm Patty: As of 7:00 AM EST, Tropical Storm Patty is located about 490 miles east of the Azores and moving east-northeastward at 20 mph. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected later today. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Further weakening is expected, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Patty poses no threat to Florida.
    • Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure could develop near the northern Leeward Islands in a few days. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time as it moves generally westward over the southwestern Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
    • *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.  *Formation chance through 7 days… low…20%.

 

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Morning Situation Report