Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, November 3, 2024

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 11/03/2024 10:15 AM EST

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • High pressure over the Northeast U.S. continues to extend along the entire eastern seaboard keeping mostly dry conditions in place across the state.
  • Onshore winds and an upper-level feature off the east coast will allow for isolated showers to develop and move westward throughout the day, with the greatest chance along the immediate coastline (10-30% chance of rain).
    • Drier conditions in the upper-levels will continue to limit the potential for widespread rainfall, as well as any thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening.
  • Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds of 10-15 mph can be expected across the Peninsula from the I-75 corridor and southward, with stronger winds upwards of 15-25 mph possible across Southeast Florida and the Keys.
    • Wind gusts of 15-25 mph can be expected throughout the Peninsula, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.
  • High temperatures in the 80s can be expected statewide with high pressure continuing to dominate the overall weather pattern.
  • Mostly dry conditions can be expected overnight, with a chance for lingering showers along the immediate Northeast and East-Central Florida coastline overnight.
  • Areas of patchy fog may be possible overnight or early Monday morning across portions of the Big Bend and the Nature Coast, if winds are able to remain light.
  • Onshore winds and ocean swells of 4-7' will continue to create a high risk for rip currents across the entire Florida East Coast. A moderate to high risk for rip currents continues for all Panhandle beaches with increased surf and onshore winds.
  • Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues along the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels continue to very slowly decline.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
    • Subtropical Storm Patty: As of 7:00 AM EST, Subtropical Storm Patty is located about 175 miles east-southeast of Lajes Air Base in the Azores and moving eastward at 16 mph. An eastward to east-northeastward motion is expected during the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Patty is expected to pull away from the Azores. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Patty is forecast to become a post-tropical low later today or tonight. This system poses no threat to Florida.
    • Southwestern Caribbean Sea (Invest 97L): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola and Ciba. Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system later today. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days at least but will continue to be closely monitored. Regardless of development, an increase in rain chances, hazardous surf and rip currents can be expected to develop across the West Coast by mid-to-late week.
    • *Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80%.  *Formation chance through 7 days…high…90%.
    • Near the Greater Antilles: An upper-level area of low pressure a couple hundred miles east of the southeastern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms along with gusty winds over the adjacent waters of the southwestern Atlantic. Slow development of this system is possible during the day or so while it moves westward toward the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba. This system is expected to be absorbed into the low pressure over the Caribbean Sea (Invest 97L) by late Monday, ending its chances of development. Regardless of formation, locally heavy rains are possible during the next couple of days across the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, eastern Ciba and the southeastern Bahamas. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days but will continue to be monitored.
    • *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.  *Formation chance through 7 days… low…10%.

 

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Morning Situation Report