Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, September 28, 2024

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 09/28/2024 09:50 AM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 1
Meteorological Summary:
  • Drier conditions will persist throughout the Panhandle and towards the western Suwannee Valley in the wake of Major Hurricane Helene.
  • Breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph will develop across the Panhandle and most of North Florida this morning and continue throughout the day.
  • A weak frontal boundary extends across portions of the central Peninsula near the I-4 corridor, which will continue to bring isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms northeastward from the eastern Gulf of Mexico throughout the (55-75% chance of rain).
  • Lingering moisture ahead of the frontal boundary will give way to locally heavy downpours, especially along saturated grounds and impacted coastal areas of West-Central and Southwest Florida - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
  • Severe weather is not expected; however, any thunderstorm could become locally strong to severe during the peak heating hours of the day. 
    • Any thunderstorm could be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
  • High temperatures in the middle to upper 80s and low 90s can be expected across the state. Warm and humid conditions can be expected from the lower Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula as heat index values will reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-110-degrees).
    • Heat Advisories will go into effect late this morning for portions of Southeast Florida as heat index values of 105-110-degrees are expected this afternoon.
    • For those areas going through the initial response and early recover phases, please keep in mind heat safety when working outdoors and for those communities who still are without power or AC.
  • Shower and thunderstorm activity across the Peninsula will gradually dissipate through the overnight hours, with a few lingering showers and rumbles of thunder near the coastlines.
  • A high risk for rip currents continues statewide due to lingering ocean swells left behind from Major Hurricane Helene and onshore winds.
    • High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the West-Central Florida coast due to dangerous beach and boating conditions due to wave heights of 4-8'.
  • Water levels along the Gulf Coast continue to subside in the wake Helene, and coastal flooding is not expected; however, local instances of elevated water levels may develop near or during times of high tide due to lingering ocean swells and onshore winds.
  • Minor to moderate riverine flooding is forecast or ongoing along eastern Panhandle and Big Bend river basins, including the Ochlockonee, Apalachicola, Sopchoppy and Chipola, due to recent heavy rainfall from Helene.
  • The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor: 
    • Hurricane Isaac: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Hurricane Isaac is located about 785 miles west of the Azores and moving northeastward at 20 mph. This general motion should continue through Monday followed by a turn toward the north-northeast on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 105 mph, making Issac a Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale. Little change in strength is expected through mid-day, followed by gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. Isaac is expected to be a post-tropical cyclone on Monday. Isaac poses no threat to Florida.
    • Tropical Storm Joyce: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Joyce is located about 1165 miles east of the Northern Leeward Islands and moving northwestward at 10 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected through Sunday. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is forecast Sunday night and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected today. Weakening is forecast to begin tonight or on Sunday, and Joyce could degenerate into a remnant low by early Tuesday. Joyce poses no threat to Florida.
    • Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A broad and elongated area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near and to the west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week while the system moves toward the west and then northwest across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days at least. The NHC is outlooking a low (20%) chance of development over the next 48 hours, and a medium (60%) chance of development over the next 7 days.
    • Western Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico: An area of low pressure could form over the western Caribbean Sea in a few days. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development thereafter while the system moves generally northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the middle to latter part of next week as the system enters the Gulf of Mexico. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7 days at least but will continue to be monitored. The NHC is outlooking a low (near 0%) chance of development over the next 48 hours, and a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 7 days.

 

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Morning Situation Report