Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 2nd, 2023

Florida Division of Emergency Management sent this bulletin at 10/02/2023 12:29 PM EDT

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Today marks the beginning of a transitional period as the lingering frontal boundary will finally push southward and offshore along the Florida Peninsula; however, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are still expected this afternoon and evening across South Florida.
  • Isolated stronger thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (45-55 mph), and torrential downpours cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours of the day across South Florida.
  • The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across Southeast Florida as rainfall totals of 1-3” will be possible, with locally higher totals upwards 4-6”, over recently saturated grounds will lead to an increased risk for localized flooding.
  • Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph can be expected to develop throughout the day, with wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph.
  • Ongoing dry conditions and breezy winds will create sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions across the Panhandle and Big Bend.
  • Astronomical tides (King Tides), elevated wave heights of 5-7’ and persistent onshore flow will create a high risk for rip currents along all Florida East Coast beaches. A high risk for rip currents can be expected along Panhandle beaches due to strong northeasterly to easterly winds and elevated wave heights.
  • Coastal Flood Warnings continue along the Northeast and East-Central coastlines as astronomical tides and persistent and strong onshore winds will lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding during times of high tide along a vulnerable coastline.
  • The St. Johns River at Astor has reached moderate flood stage due to elevated tides, persistent onshore winds, and runoff from rainfall over the last few days leading to backed up water levels. The Peace River at Arcadia, Fisheating Creek at Palmdale, and Little Manatee River near Wimauma are within minor flood stage due to recent heavy rainfall.
  • As of 8:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 95 miles east-southeast of Barbuda and moving west-northwestward at 7 mph. A northwestward motion is expected to resume later today and through early Tuesday, followed by a north-northwestward turn on Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph, and little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so. Philippe poses no direct threat to Florida.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report