Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 22, 2023

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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • An active weather day can be anticipated nearly statewide as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop later this morning and continue through the evening hours (50-95% chance of rain).
  • The combination of abundant moisture ahead of a stationary frontal boundary draped across North Florida, and the daily sea breeze collision across the interior Peninsula, will give way to isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms developing during the peak heating hours of the day.
    • The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across North Florida and the interior Peninsula as thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds (45-50 mph), small hail and heavy downpours.
  • Given the increase of moisture along the frontal boundary, as well as the typical summertime thunderstorm pattern developing along the sea breeze, heavy and intense downpours can be expected along the I-10 corridor and throughout the interior Peninsula – The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
    • Localized flooding concerns can be anticipated as rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals of 3-5” possible, across the Panhandle and interior Peninsula. Recently saturated areas, as well as urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas, can anticipate an increased risk for localized flooding during heavy and intense downpours.
  • A Flood Watch is in effect across the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend through late Tuesday evening as several rounds of heavy and intense rainfall can be anticipated. Additional watches and warnings may be issued across North Florida and the interior Peninsula as conditions warrant.
  • Persistent northeasterly flow will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast and portions of the Panhandle.
  • Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure, located a couple hundred miles northeast of the central Bahamas, remains poorly organized. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to prevent development while the system generally moves north-northeastward over the southwestern Atlantic. Formation chance through 7 days remains low (10% chance of development).

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report