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Prepared by Precision Advocacy
Legislative Analyst’s Office on the Governor’s Budget Proposal
The Legislative Analyst’s Office (LAO) has released its Overview of the Governor’s Budget, which is largely supportive of the administration’s estimates and proposals. Throughout the budget process, the LAO will continue to provide more detailed feedback on the administration’s proposals. Below is a snapshot of its analysis.
- The LAO confirms that the 2025-26 budget is roughly balanced in part due to decisions made last year. The main differences between the LAO’s estimates and the governor’s estimates:
- Over the budget window - 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26 - the administration’s estimates of revenues are $9 billion higher than the LAO’s, resulting in an additional $4.7 billion constitutional requirement for K-14 education.
- The administration’s estimates of baseline spending are lower than the LAO’s by $600 million.
- The governor’s budget proposal includes three categories of discretionary proposals - those providing short-term budget savings, new spending, and setting the balance of the Special Fund for Economic Uncertainties (SFEU).
- Proposals providing short-term budget savings:
- Providing $1.6 billion less in funding for schools and community colleges than the estimated constitutional minimum funding level for 2024-25. This creates a settle-up obligation which will need to be paid in a future year.
- Changing the rules about how taxable profits are determined for financial institutions, increasing revenues by $300 million annually.
- Shifting $273 million in General Fund spending to the climate bond.
- New discretionary proposals account for $570 million in new spending in 2025-26 and $300 million in ongoing spending. The largest are:
- $42 million ongoing to restore an ongoing reduction to trial courts.
- $60 million to provide additional grants under the Cal Competes program.
- $5 million in 2025-26 and $84 million ongoing to expand the College Corps.
- New tax expenditures proposed include a $420 million ongoing increase to the existing film tax credit and excluding some military retirement income from taxation. These proposals would reduce revenues by about $150 million in 2025-26, increasing to $300 million by 2028-29.
- The governor proposes to set the SFEU balance at $4.5 billion. The SFEU is a general-purpose reserve providing capacity for unanticipated expenditures and has been set between $3.5 billion and $4 billion in recent budget years
- Differences in estimates between the LAO and administration are attributable to three factors:
- The administration proposes that the state continues to suspend deposits into the Rainy-Day Fund, while in November, the LAO assumed deposits of $3-$4 billion annually.
- The administration’s revenues are higher in 2026-27 and 2027-28.
- The administration’s estimate of spending is lower than the LAO’s in 2028-29, likely due to lower spending estimates in health and human services, higher education, and required debt payments under Proposition 2.
- Revenue estimates are reasonable, but are subject to much uncertainty, largely because recent increases are due to stock market gains, not a strengthening in the state’s broader economy.
- The cost of the Los Angeles fires was not included in the administration’s estimates as the budget proposal was developed prior to January.
- Delayed tax payments because of the Los Angeles fires will mean that about one-third of 2024 tax payments won’t be realized until October 2025, making revenue numbers even more difficult to ascertain.
- The administration’s use of reserves is reasonable.
- The LAO recommends that the legislature examine the multi-year budget picture with an eye toward solving for future year deficits.
- The legislature may want to ascertain the efficacy of current programs now versus waiting until the May revision.
- The administration’s goals for increasing the cap on the Budget Stabilization Account from 10% to 20% and excluding reserve deposits from the state appropriations limit is a good first step in enhancing reserve policies. The legislature could additionally consider changing formulas that set aside funds each year to reduce the impacts of revenue volatility.
Special Session Legislation
The legislature is anticipated to send four special session bills to Governor Gavin Newsom for his signature on January 23. The measures provide funding for addressing the Los Angeles wildfires and for legal resources to file and defend against lawsuits related to the new federal administration. Identical versions of each bill were introduced in each house of the legislature, however, only one version of each measure is anticipated to be sent to the governor.
ABX1 4/SBX1 4 Amendment to the 2024 Budget Act: Wildfire Response and Recovery. These measures authorize emergency expenditure authority related to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires:
- Appropriates up to $1.5 billion in one-time General Fund, or other available funds, for augmentations to departments and agencies, subject to Department of Finance approval, for use in accordance with allowable uses of the Disaster Response-Emergency Operations Account in areas of the state affected by wildfire states of emergency that were declared by the governor in January 2025. Funds shall be available for encumbrance until the state of emergency declaration is terminated, or on a date determined by the Department of Finance.
- Allowable uses include, but are not limited to, emergency protective measures, evacuations, sheltering for survivors, household hazardous waste removal, assessment and remediation of post-fire hazards such as flash flooding and debris flows, traffic control, air quality and water and other environmental testing, and other actions to protect health, protect the safety of persons or property, and expedite recovery.
- Augmentations for the first $1 billion of this amount shall be made immediately with the remainder available no sooner than three days following the transmittal of the approval to the chairperson of the Joint Legislative Budget Committee or an earlier date as determined by the chairperson of the joint committee, or the chairperson’s designee.
- Note - this measure provides the Department of Finance wide discretion in terms of funding source - for example, the Proposition 4 climate bond could be tapped to provide General Fund relief.
ABX1 5/SBX1 3 Amendment to the 2024 Budget Act: Wildfire Response and Recovery. These measures amend the 2024 Budget Act to authorize emergency expenditure authority related to the 2025 Los Angeles wildfires:
- Appropriates $4 million one-time General Fund to the Department of Housing and Community Development for a grant program for local governments in areas impacted by the January 2025 wildfires to provide additional planning review and building inspection resources for the purpose of expediting building approvals for homeowner rebuilding.
- Appropriates $1 million one-time General Fund to the Department of General Services to aid the Los Angeles Unified School District, Pasadena Unified School District, and any impacted charter schools located within those school districts, to rebuild and recover school facilities damaged as a result of the January 2025 wildfires.
- Appropriates up to $1 billion in one-time General Fund for augmentations to departments and agencies, subject to Department of Finance approval, for use in accordance with allowable uses of the Disaster Response-Emergency Operations Account in areas of the state affected by wildfire states of emergency that were declared by the Governor in January 2025.
- Allowable uses include, but are not limited to, emergency protective measures, evacuations, sheltering for survivors, household hazardous waste removal, assessment and remediation of post-fire hazards such as flash flooding and debris flows, traffic control, air quality and water and other environmental testing, and other actions to protect health, protect the safety of persons or property, and expedite recovery.
- The Department of Finance shall post on its website a Los Angeles Wildfire Response and Recovery Expenditure Report, providing information on the use of state funding concerning the response and recovery from the January 2025 wildfires.
- The executive branch is required to seek reimbursements from the federal government for the maximum possible amount of funds related to response and recovery from the January 2025 wildfires.
ABX1 2/SBX1 2 Civil legal services for indigent persons and related costs
- Legal Services Trust Fund Commission
- Appropriates $10 million to be distributed through the Legal Services Trust Fund Commission to qualified legal services projects and support centers to provide legal services to vulnerable persons at risk of detention, deportation, eviction, wage theft, intimate partner violence, and other actions that put their safety at risk, as a result of potential or actual federal actions.
- Immigration Services Funding
- Appropriates $10 million to the Department of Social Services for immigration services funding.
- Appropriates $5 million to the Judicial Council, to be distributed through the California Access to Justice Commission to nonprofit providers of legal services.
ABX1 1/SBX1 1 Executive branch litigation costs. Appropriates up to $25 million for the purpose of defending California against enforcement and legal actions taken by the federal government, filing affirmative litigation challenging actions taken by the federal government, and taking administrative action authorized under state law to mitigate the impacts of actions taken by the federal government.
California FAIR Plan Assessment
California’s FAIR Plan is facing a major test as the state continues to grapple with the historic wildfires in Southern California. The fires are widely expected to trigger an assessment event for the FAIR Plan, having damaged or destroyed more than 12,000 structures and killed at least 27 people. Fitch Ratings recently reported that the FAIR plan’s current estimated losses from the fires are around $6 billion. The 1994 Northridge Earthquake was the last time an assessment was triggered.
The FAIR Plan is a private association of all insurers licensed to write property insurance in California and is funded primarily through the policies it sells to customers. It is not a state agency and is not funded by the state or other public agencies. The FAIR Plan was initially established in response to the Watts riots in 1965 and has evolved to be the insurance of last resort for many Californians who live in wildland urban interface (WUI) areas who are at higher risk of wildfire.
The FAIR Plan offers basic property insurance for all Californians who cannot access coverage in the voluntary insurance marketplace; however, insurance through the plan can be costly and dwelling coverage is capped at $3 million. As of September 30, 2024, the number of FAIR Plan policies increased by 41% over the previous year to over 450,000.
Last Friday the FAIR Plan reported that it had $377 million in reserves, as well as $5.78 billion worth of reinsurance. The reinsurance requires the plan to pay the first $900 million in claims and has other limitations.
If an assessment is triggered, Fitch reports that it will likely lead to increased insurance premiums or reduced coverage availability in the private market as insurers adjust to offset their increased liabilities from FAIR Plan contributions. Under new regulations passed late last year as part of Insurance Commissioner Ricardo Lara’s Sustainable Insurance Strategy, state regulators can split the first $1 billion beyond what FAIR is able to cover evenly between assessments on insurance companies and policyholders. After that, the insurance companies can pass on 100% of additional costs to policyholders as higher premiums. Fitch cautioned that insurers with wildfire losses exceeding earnings and reinsurance limits amid weakening capital levels will be vulnerable. Thus, a FAIR Plan assessment could add additional pressure to the already challenged homeowners’ insurance market.
Beyond its own cash reserves and reinsurance, the FAIR Plan could access additional liquidity using catastrophe bonds. Assemblymembers Lisa Calderon (D-Whittier) and David Alvarez (D-San Diego) introduced AB 226 that aims to assist in issuing catastrophe bonds and help finance the costs of insurance claims, increasing claims-paying capacity of the FAIR Plan.
AB 226 would authorize the FAIR Plan to request the California Infrastructure and Economic Development Bank to issue bonds if it faces liquidity challenges in the event of a major catastrophe such as a wildfire.
“The most important question for us right now is: ‘How can we help?’” Speaker Rivas told reporters. “Our Assembly is taking action today. The Assembly plans to advance legislation to support recovery efforts, including a bill focused on insurance claims for homeowners.”
AB 226 would require a two-thirds vote and is eligible for a policy committee hearing on February 9.
Birthright Citizenship Order Lawsuit
Attorney General Rob Bonta filed his first lawsuit against the Trump administration this year on January 21, 2025. He is joined by the attorneys general of New Jersey, Massachusetts, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Mexico, New York, North Carolina Rhode Island, Vermont, and Wisconsin, along with the City of San Francisco in the complaint.
The lawsuit challenges the Trump administration’s executive order seeking to end birthright citizenship. The order directs federal agencies to prospectively deny the citizenship rights of American-born children whose parents are not lawful residents. The order instructs the Social Security Administration and Department of State, respectively, to cease issuing social security numbers and U.S. passports to these children and directs all federal agencies to treat these children as ineligible for any privilege, right, or benefit that is reserved by law to individuals who are U.S. citizens.
Under the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S., all children born on U.S. soil are automatically granted U.S. citizenship and the rights and privileges that come with it. Attorney General Bonta’s complaint states that President Trump's action is unconstitutional and points out that the result of the change for California could jeopardize services to the most vulnerable children, including healthcare access for low-income children, foster care services for neglected and abused kids, and early interventions for infants, toddlers, and students with disabilities.
Assembly Committee Membership
On January 17, Assembly Speaker Robert Rivas announced committee memberships for 2025. Below is a list of committee members within the Orange County delegation. The full list of committee assignments may be found here.
Committee Chairs
Aging and Long-Term Care: None
Agriculture: None
Appropriations: Assemblymembers Kate Sanchez, Vice Chair; Diane Dixon; Blanca Pacheco; and Tri Ta
Arts, Entertainment, Sports, and Tourism: Assemblymembers Sharon Quirk-Silva and Avelino Valencia
Banking and Finance: Assemblymembers Avelino Valencia, Chair; Phillip Chen (R-Yorba Linda), Vice Chair; and Diane Dixon
Budget: Assemblymembers Cottie Petrie-Norris and Sharon Quirk-Silva
Budget Subcommittee No. 1 on Health: None
Budget Subcommittee No. 2 on Human Services: None
Budget Subcommittee No. 3 on Education Finance: None
Budget Subcommittee No. 4 on Climate Crisis, Resources, Energy, and Transportation: Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris
Budget Subcommittee No. 5 on State Administration: Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva, Chair
Budget Subcommittee No. 6 on Public Safety: None
Budget Subcommittee No. 7 on Accountability and Oversight: None
Business and Professions: Assemblymember Phillip Chen
Communications and Conveyance: None
Economic Development, Growth, and Household Impact: Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris
Education: None
Elections: None
Emergency Management: None
Environmental Safety and Toxic Materials: None
Governmental Organization: Assemblymembers Laurie Davies, Diane Dixon, Blanca Pacheco, Kate Sanchez, Tri Ta, and Avelino Valencia
Health: Assemblymember Kate Sanchez
Higher Education: None
Housing and Community Development: Assemblymembers Sharon Quirk-Silva and Tri Ta
Human Services: None
Insurance: Assemblymembers Phillip Chen, Cottie Petrie-Norris, and Avelino Valencia
Judiciary: Assemblymembers Diane Dixon, Vice Chair; Blanca Pacheco; and Kate Sanchez
Labor and Employment: Assemblymember Phillip Chen
Local Government: Assemblymembers Tri Ta, Vice Chair and Blanca Pacheco
Military and Veterans Affairs: Assemblymembers Laurie Davies, Vice Chair and Avelino Valencia
Natural Resources: None
Privacy and Consumer Protection: Assemblymembers Diane Dixon, Vice Chair and Cottie Petrie-Norris
Public Employment and Retirement: None
Public Safety: None
Revenue and Taxation: Assemblymembers Tri Ta, Vice Chair and Sharon Quirk-Silva
Rules: Assemblymembers Blanca Pacheco, Chair; Kate Sanchez; and Tri Ta, Republican Alternate
Transportation: Assemblymember Laurie Davies, Vice Chair
Utilities and Energy: Assemblymembers Cottie Petrie-Norris, Chair; Phillip Chen; and Tri Ta
Water, Parks, and Wildlife: Assemblymember Laurie Davies
Legislative Ethics: Assemblymember Phillip Chen, Co-Chair
Joint Legislative Audit Committee: Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva
Joint Legislative Budget: Assemblymember Sharon Quirk-Silva
Joint Legislative Committee on Climate Change Policies: Assemblymember Cottie Petrie-Norris
Governor’s Press Releases
Below is a list of the governor’s press releases beginning January 15.
January 22: Governor Newsom deploys specialized debris flow teams to Southern California ahead of wet weather
January 21: Governor Newsom meets with NASA JPL workers, small business owners impacted by firestorm
January 21: Here’s all the actions Governor Newsom has taken in response to the Los Angeles fires
January 20: Governor Newsom statement on President Trump’s executive actions on climate
January 20: Governor Newsom issues statement on President Trump’s executive order to repeal birthright citizenship
January 20: On MLK Day of Service, Governor Newsom and First Partner Siebel Newsom volunteer to help Los Angeles wildfire survivors
January 20: Governor Newsom statement on the inauguration of President Donald Trump and Vice President JD Vance
January 20: California continues to help individuals in regions impacted by Los Angeles fires access health care, food and water, and shelter
January 20: Governor Newsom, First Partner Siebel Newsom statement on passing of Cecile Richards
January 20: Governor Newsom issues executive order to help protect firestorm-affected communities from landslides and flooding
January 19: Governor Newsom signs executive order to protect public safety in firestorm-devastated communities
January 19: Governor Newsom deploys firefighting resources ahead of more dangerous fire weather
January 18: California and Biden-Harris Administration partner on website to consolidate local, state, and federal support for Los Angeles firestorm survivors
January 18: Governor Newsom announces commitments from major lenders to provide firestorm survivors with mortgage relief
January 17: Governor Newsom bans evictions based on hosting fire survivors
January 16: Governor Newsom announces $20 million to support firestorm-impacted workers
January 16: Governor Newsom extends state property tax deadlines for LA firestorm communities until April 2026
January 16: Governor Newsom issues executive order to fast-track temporary housing for Los Angeles firestorm area
January 15: Governor Newsom deploys additional CHP officers to protect firestorm-devastated communities
January 15: California secures expanded federal funding to repair firestorm-damaged public infrastructure
January 15: Governor Newsom signs executive order to jumpstart firestorm cleanup of damaged and destroyed homes
January 15: Governor Newsom Proclaims Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr. Day 2025
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