BTS Statistics Release: 3rd-Quarter 2015 Air Fare Data

BTS 08-16

Tuesday, February 9, 2016

Contact: Dave Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568

 

BTS Statistics Release: 3rd-Quarter 2015 Air Fare Data

 

            The average domestic air fare decreased to $372 in the third quarter of 2015, down 6.2 percent from $396 in the third quarter of 2014, falling to the lowest level since 2010, adjusted for inflation (Table 1), the U.S. Department of Transportation’s Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today.

  

            BTS reports average fares based on domestic itinerary fares. Itinerary fares consist of round-trip fares, unless the customer does not purchase a return trip. In that case, the one-way fare is included. One-way trips accounted for 34 percent of fares calculated for the third quarter of 2015. Fares are based on the total ticket value, which consists of the price charged by the airlines plus any additional taxes and fees levied by an outside entity at the time of purchase. Fares include only the price paid at the time of the ticket purchase and do not include fees for optional services, such as baggage fees. Averages do not include frequent-flyer or “zero fares,” or abnormally high reported fares. Constant 2015 dollars are used for inflation adjustment.

 

Inflation-Adjusted Air Fares

            Third-quarter fares rose 11.9 percent from the recession-affected low of $338 in 2009 to the third quarter of 2011. Since 2011, third-quarter fares have shown little change, decreasing 1.7 percent from 2011 to 2015 (Table 1).

 

            The third-quarter 2015 fare was down 19.4 percent from the average fare of $461 in 2000, the highest inflation-adjusted third quarter average fare in the 20 years since BTS began collecting air fare records in 1995. The 19.4 percent decline took place while overall consumer prices rose 37.0 percent. Since 1995, inflation-adjusted fares declined 16.8 percent compared to a 55.3 percent increase in overall consumer prices (Table 2). See BTS Air Fare web page for historical data.

 

            U.S. passenger airlines collected 75.0 percent of their total revenue from passenger fares during the third quarter of 2015, down from 87.6 percent in 1995 (Table 1A).

 

Quarter-to-Quarter Change

            Third-quarter fares were down 3.5 percent from the second quarter of 2015, dropping to the lowest inflation-adjusted level since the fourth quarter of 2010 when the average fare was $363. See quarterly fare data. 

 

            In the three-year period from the third quarter of 2012 to the third quarter of 2015, inflation-adjusted fares decreased 1.5 percent. In the two-year period from the third quarter of 2013 to the third quarter of 2015, inflation-adjusted fares decreased 6.2 percent (Table 3).

 

Unadjusted Air Fares

            The $372 third-quarter 2015 average fare was down 6.2 percent from the third-quarter 2014 fare of $396, which was the highest average fare for any quarter since 1995. Since 1995, unadjusted fares rose 29.3 percent (Table 4). Third-quarter fares were down 3.5 percent from the second quarter of 2015, dropping to the lowest unadjusted level since the third quarter of 2012 when the average fare was $367 (Table 5).

 

Fares by Airport 

 

            Grouped by the number of originating passengers in the third quarter of 2015, the 12 airports with more than 5 million originating passengers had the highest average fares ($380). Airports with 4 to 5 million originating passengers had the lowest average fares of any group ($339) (Table 6).

 

            Tables listing the airports by group can be found on the BTS Air Fare web page.

 

            For additional data, see Top 100 Airports or All Airports. Since average fares are based on the Origin and Destination Survey 10 percent ticket sample, averages for airports with smaller samples may be less reliable. Fares for Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico airports are not included in rankings but are available on the web page. Fourth-quarter 2015 average fare data will be released April 26.

  

 

Table 1. 3rd Quarter Average Fare 1995-2015, Adjusted for Inflation

Year	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q to 3Q) (%)	Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q 1995 to 3Q of each year) (%)
1995	447
1996	406	-9.0	-9.0
1997	417	2.5	-6.7
1998	459	10.0	2.7
1999	450	-2.0	0.7
2000	461	2.6	3.3
2001	404	-12.3	-9.4
2002	399	-1.4	-10.7
2003	401	0.7	-10.1
2004	372	-7.4	-16.8
2005	366	-1.5	-18.0
2006	387	5.7	-13.3
2007	374	-3.4	-16.3
2008	390	4.4	-12.6
2009	338	-13.4	-24.3
2010	370	9.4	-17.1
2011	378	2.2	-15.3
2012	377	-0.3	-15.5
2013	396	5.0	-11.2
2014	396	0.0	-11.3
2015	372	-6.2	-16.8

               

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 1A. Passenger Airline Revenue from Fares 1990-2015

Year	Revenue from Passenger Fares as Percent of Total Scheduled Passenger Airline Operating Revenue* (%)
1990	88.5
1995	87.6
2000	88.9
2001	87.8
2002	87.1
2003	84.9
2004	80.6
2005	78.4
2006	77.6
2007	77.7
2008	75.9
2009	73.7
2010	74.8
2011	74.6
2012	74.1
2013	74.6
2014	74.8
2015 (1Q)	74.6
2015 (2Q)	75.7
2015 (3Q)	75.0

 

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, P-12

* From Schedule P-12: Passenger Revenue (Fares) (Acct 3901) as a percentage of Total Operating Revenues (4999).

 

 

Table 2. Percent Changes to 2015 in Average Domestic Average Fares and the Inflation Rate* by Year Since 1995

(3rd Quarter to 3rd Quarter for fares; September to September for inflation)

Since 3rd Quarter of ...	Duration in Years	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Percent Change in Average Fare to 3rd Quarter 2015 (%)	Inflation Rate Change to Sept 2015
2015		372
2014	1	396	-6.2	0.0
2013	2	396	-6.2	1.6
2012	3	377	-1.5	2.8
2011	4	378	-1.7	4.9
2010	5	370	0.5	8.9
2009	6	338	9.9	10.2
2008	7	390	-4.8	8.8
2007	8	374	-0.6	14.1
2006	9	387	-4.0	17.3
2005	10	366	1.5	19.7
2004	11	372	0.0	25.3
2003	12	401	-7.4	28.5
2002	13	399	-6.8	31.5
2001	14	404	-8.1	33.5
2000	15	461	-19.4	37.0
1999	16	450	-17.3	41.7
1998	17	459	-18.9	45.4
1997	18	417	-10.8	47.6
1996	19	406	-8.5	50.8
1995	20	447	-16.8	55.3

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

* Rate calculated using Bureau of Labor Statistics Consumer Price Index

 

 

Table 3. Inflation-Adjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year	Average Domestic Fare (2015$)
	Average Fare in constant 2015 dollars ($)	Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)
4Q 2011	388	2.7
1Q 2012	387	-0.4
2Q 2012	399	3.1
3Q 2012	377	-5.4
4Q 2012	388	2.8
1Q 2013	386	-0.4
2Q 2013	385	-0.3
3Q 2013	396	2.9
4Q 2013	390	-1.6
1Q 2014	385	-1.3
2Q 2014	395	2.6
3Q 2014	396	0.3
4Q 2014*	398	0.4
1Q 2015*	391	-1.7
2Q 2015*	385	-1.7
3Q 2015*	372	-3.4

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

* Fares for the most recent four quarters are in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation.

 

 

Table 4. Unadjusted 3rd Quarter Average Fares, 1995-2015

Year	Average Fare in current dollars ($)	Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q to 3Q) (%)	Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q 1995 to 3Q of each year) (%)
1995	288
1996	269	-6.3	-6.3
1997	282	4.7	-1.8
1998	315	11.7	9.6
1999	317	0.6	10.3
2000	337	6.1	17.1
2001	303	-10.0	5.4
2002	303	0.1	5.5
2003	312	3.0	8.7
2004	297	-5.1	3.1
2005	306	3.2	6.4
2006	330	7.9	14.8
2007	328	-0.8	13.9
2008	359	9.6	24.8
2009	307	-14.5	6.8
2010	340	10.7	18.2
2011	361	6.2	25.5
2012	367	1.7	27.6
2013	390	6.3	35.7
2014	396	1.6	37.9
2015	372	-6.2	29.3

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 5. Unadjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year	Average Domestic Fare (current$)
	Average Fare in current dollars ($)	Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)
3Q 2012	367	-4.6
4Q 2012	374	2.0
1Q 2013	378	1.0
2Q 2013	378	0.0
3Q 2013	390	3.2
4Q 2013	382	-2.0
1Q 2014	382	0.0
2Q 2014	396	3.5
3Q 2014	396	0.2
4Q 2014	393	-0.9
1Q 2015	388	-1.1
2Q 2015	385	-0.8
3Q 2015	372	-3.5

 

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 6. Fares at Airports with 1,000,000+ Originating Passengers 3rd Quarter 2015

Based on 3Q2015 U.S. Originating Domestic Passengers

Airport Groups based on 3Q 2015 Originating Passengers	Average Fare 3rd Quarter 2015 ($)	Percent of Total Passengers
5 million+	380	34
4-5 million	339	22
3-4 million	352	17
2-3 million	375	12
1-2 million	375	12
less than 1 million	376	3
Average Fare at All Airports	372	100

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey